Uncertainty Measurement Theory Of Traffic Safety

The world facing a global road safety crisis, road traffic safety has become a human life of important problems of sustainable development. How to take effective measures, prevent and reduce traffic accidents is widely concerned all over the world and key research topics. Road traffic safety management technology is the important means to predict, prevent and reduce the traffic accident. Its core is the road traffic safety evaluation, prediction and decision-making technology. Road traffic safety evaluation is the basis of traffic safety management in three afore-mentioned content. The existing road traffic safety evaluation methods have based on the classical set theory and the majority of the accident data. Because of the classical set theory limitations and accidents randomness, the evaluation results are not very reasonable. Road traffic safety is an uncertain concept, its connotation and extension are uncertain, so it is difficult to determine the safety and the unsafety of the reasonable limit. Road traffic safety system is such a cannot accurately describe the complex system. Uncertainty theory for solving this kind of problem provides three very useful tools, namely the uncertain function, linguistic variable and uncertain operator. Uncertain function can reasonably solve the " security " and " unsafe " between the concept of transition, not like a classical mathematical so rigidly prescribed an absolute limit; Linguistic variables can make traffic safety evaluation conclusion in colloquial vocabulary expression possible; Different uncertain operators reflect different ways of thinking, if using multiple uncertain operator, they can be considered a variety of safety’ evaluation view. Therefore, it is feasible, and it also is the scientific and reasonable to construct a logic based on uncertain traffic safety evaluation model, which is used in the evaluation of road traffic safety. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, the road traffic safety measure model is established by introducing uncertainty theory, and make it more reasonable and more wide applicability in the road traffic safety measure.This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method ". It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure. The main research content is:1) real uncertain traffic safety measure. This part research content includes the real uncertain traffic safety measure with unknown index weights, the real uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the real uncertain traffic safety measure with index weight in the form of preference information given.2) interval uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with only partial weight information and the interval uncertain traffic safety measure with real index weight.3) language uncertain traffic safety measure. This section research content includes language uncertain traffic safety measure with the real index weight, language uncertain traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight and language uncertain traffic safety measure with the language index weight.4) uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure. This section research content includes uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the unknown index weight, uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the real index weight and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure with the interval index weight.The paper studies from the four aspects to obtain the following conclusions:This paper constructs the uncertain traffic safety measure theory as the goal, and uses the analysis thought of " obtain the measure index——aggregation measurement information——comparison and analysis the result——extract the appropriate method" It introduces uncertainty theory into the uncertain traffic safety measure, focus on real uncertain traffic safety measure, interval uncertain traffic safety measure, language model uncertainty traffic safety measure and uncertain linguistic traffic safety measure four aspects, summarizes the various methods for uncertain, and gives the corresponding calculation method of traffic safety measure.