Research On Forecast And Evaluation Model In New Energy Wind Power Developmeng

The issue of energy security and environment protection has become globalization problems in the21century. Our government pays high attention to the development of renewable energy and makes it an important measure to ease the tension of energy supply, optimize energy structure, reduce greenhouse gas emission and address climate change. The specific goals of development and relevant incentive policies are put forward to encourage the development of renewable energy, and it is also clarified that the12th Five-Year Plan of new energy industry development is mainly focusing on increasing the proportion of wind power in the new energy supply, popularizing the diversification utilization of biomass energy, comprehensively promoting the solar thermal utilization, and improving the economic and market competitiveness of solar power continuously.The rapid development of the new energy industry has made remarkable achievements, with the measures of core technology introduction and independent research and development, technologies such as wind, solar, biomass are also developing steadily. As China’s new energy industry is leaping forward from the start, the characteristics of multi-crossed disciplines are emerging markedly in the whole process, thus the research of key factors which affect the industry development such as technologies and talents are required to ensure the continuous and healthy development.The sustainable development of the new energy industry makes a higher demand on technical progress. On one hand the technical progress and innovation will eventually requires a strong support of talents; on the other hand as the talents’ technical level rising, the industrial technology is promoting. However the basic technology research and development is still a weak link which not only affects the ability of independent innovation, but also imposes limitation on the absorption capacity of introduced core technologies, which seriously constrained the quality and competitiveness of China’s new energy products.Therefore, according to the requirements of new energy industrial development, the research is mainly focusing on the prediction and evaluation of new energy installed capacity, generated energy, technology talents demand, technical contribution rate, technical progress rate, etc, and becoming an important support of new energy industry development.This article conducts a theoretical and empirical analysis of related prediction and evaluation. The main contents are as follows:(1)Based on the new energy industry development trend and technological progress analysis, this article puts forward the prediction model of contribution rate of technological progress based on the Production Function Method; the technical talent contribution rate model of technological progress based on Factor Input Analysis; the evaluation model of technical progress rate of technical talents based on Factor Analysis Method combined with the law of technical talents development, in order to promote technical progress.(2) According to the relevant prediction analysis of time series, gray theory, etc, as well as research on the laws of development in new energy industries, the article proposes new energy installed capacity prediction based on grey model and on this basis, also considering about the factor of technology progress, the technical talents demand prediction of new energy per capital installed capacity are put forward based on GM (1,1), which verifies with data in wind power development and corresponding employment of EU, showing that the model has high prediction precision. The model predicts the quantity of technical talents in wind power industry, and has application value in the extension of other new energy types.(3) It researches power load forecasting model in the new energy industry development environment. The wind power forecasting be as a research object representatively. A preferred combination of wind power load forecasting model has been built in the paper, it combines the time series forecasting model, Markov prediction model and the gray prediction model for wind power load forecast with preferred combination model for prediction. With the new model, it can get a good forecasting result and the method can be consulted for other new energy power load forecasting.(4) According to the characteristics of multi-crossed disciplines required by the technology in the process of development and utilization of new energy industry, the carrier types of technical talents and subdivision of specialties are set on the basis of traditional talent structure model, and technical talent structure model are put forward. Furthermore, the article takes subdivision of specialties as a starting point and proposes the cluster analysis model of technical talent structure; constructs a new data classification model based on Bayesian Network Classifier, and on these basis, a multi-dimensional composite method is adopted to analyze the talent structure. (5) According to the analysis of technical talents supply factors in the process of development and utilization of new energy industry, the prediction model of technical talent supply based on Markov Chain and Neural Network Optimization is proposed, which provides a theoretical support for the new energy technical talent prediction.(6) According to the analysis results of wind power installed capacity and power load forecasting and wind power technology talents demand forecast, supply structure, this article puts forward a series of policy suggestions from the system and talents development, in order to make policy suggestions for the new wind energy to the sustained and healthy development.