Study On Predictive Methods Of BIM Based On Construction Project Schedule

In the practice of project management, construction schedule management,which relates to economic benefits of project directly, is one of the core indices forproject management. The fact that complication, dynamics and uncertainty exist in theprocess of construction makes the prediction and control of schedule extremelydifficult in engineering implementations. In actual construction schedule management,the complicated multiple influencing factors are considered reasonably, which canpredict the uncertainty in construction process sufficiently, evaluate project durationrisks more exactly and then control construction schedule more effectively.By the probability and statistical analysis of complicated factors which haveeffects on schedule, this paper establishes the prediction model of complicated factorsabout construction schedule, puts forward to schedule prediction integration systembased on BIM technology, improves the complicated varying quantity of short-termworks in construction process, subtilizes the level of schedule prediction and adjustspredictive analysis level of overall construction schedule.The main work of this paper as follows:Firstly, the characteristics, differences and similarities between BIM technologyand LC theory are analyzed, collaborative applications between BIM technology andLC theory are discussed, and the integration method of key technologies for BIM andLC is proposed.Secondly, the stochastic analysis about complicated factors which have animpact on construction schedule is conducted. The methods which are used todetermine construction duration are summarized. On the basis of Dijkstra algorithm,network planning computation system is designed, six time annotations ofconstruction schedule can be automatically computed is realized, the key path can beautomatically identified and computed, and the shortages of application system aboutcurrent construction schedule software can be remedied. The uncertainty ofcomplicated factors which influence construction schedule is analyzed deeply, theprobability and statistical method for factors which have an impact on construction isproposed.Thirdly, the probability theory, mathematical statistics method, reliability theory,and project management theory are utilized. The complicated relationship betweenconstructive planning schedule and predictive actual schedule is analyzed. The random prediction model for construction schedule which affected by a single factoris researched. The models include the following: predictive models for objectiveschedule about material supply and management level which act as determinate singlefactors, predictive model for objective schedule about a random single factor, andpredictive model for random objective schedule about a random single factor.Simultaneously, the predictive model for schedule about multiple congeneric singlefactors is established.Fourthly, the overall schedule prediction model which is influenced by multiplefactors is studied. With random factor and determinate objective schedule as well asrandom factor and random objective considered respectively, the objective schedulematrix about overall construction network planning and schedule deviation matrix areestablished. The predictive schedule matrix of overall construction network planningand the matrix norm are achieved. Simultaneously, the method for project durationoptimization and control is proposed.Fifthly, the prediction method of construction schedule based on BIM technologyis proposed, the integrated systematical architecture is carried out. The influencingfactor identification, project duration prediction and quantitative predictive methodfor actual schedule which integrated system to unit work schedule and overallconstruction schedule are discussed. The effective control on construction schedulewhich is combined with BIM platform is realized.Finally, the feasibility and applicability of research results are verified, which isbased on engineering project analysis. The application results show that the researchmethods can estimate the uncertainty in schedule planning reasonably, monitor andcontrol the schedule planning dynamically according to influencing factor changes ofconstruction schedule. These results have wide application prospects as well as goodapplication value.