| Under the network operation condition of urban rail transit system, the accessibility of network is enhancing, the traveler’s behaviors are versatile, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow are complex, and the relationship between traffic demand and capacity is more close, which makes the transportation plan need more coordinated and proposed new and higher requirements in traffic management, train control and security, etc. However, a series of troublesome issues have emerged with the rapid development of mass transit system, such as passenger flow congestion, operation safety, and coordinated transport organizations, etc. In order to solve/remit these increasing issues, the managers should conduct the transport organization between different transit lines coordinately, allocate transport capacity resources efficiently, manage the train running and passenger flow moving dynamically, and make integrate measures under emergency quickly, where the basis and key to carry out these dynamic measures is the dynamic distribution characteristics of passenger flow on network.This paper mainly contribute to study the problems of dynamic O-D matrices estimation, dynamic passenger flow assignment and coordinated station inflow control, with passenger flow demand and distribution as the research main line, aims to provide theoretical basis and support for improving operation management level and promoting dynamic network transport operation for mass transit system in China. The detail of study contents include:(1) Dynamic Passenger flow demand estimation:Considering the closed network structure of urban mass transit, the high passenger travel time reliability, and having enough priori passengers flow information, two types of methods for dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation are proposed, which use inflow and outflow as real-time detection information, and travel time distribution and a priori origin-destination matrix as additional information. The first model is based on the least square estimate theory, and adopts a moving average strategy to improve the precision of estimation results in short time. The second model, a structured dynamic O-D matrix estimation state space model, based on Kalman filtering algorithm is proposed to improve the computation efficiency for on-line O-D estimation in large-scale network. The process of dynamic estimation can provide basic input data for dynamic operation management and control system-dynamic O-D matrixes.(2) Dynamic Passenger flow assignment:A microscopic simulation model based on individual traveller behavior is proposed, which describes a series of traveller’s behavior in detail, such as route choice, entering and exiting, boarding and alighting, transferring, and so on. With these proposed models, a simulation tool for dynamic passenger flow assignment in urban mass transit network--SURPASS (Smart Urban Rail Passenger Assignment Simulation System) was also developed, which can solve the dynamic traffic assignment problem efficiently. A true mass transit network is employed to test this simulation system, and results show that the tool can do a pretty good job for simulating the complete travel behaviors of passengers on network, meet the computation efficiency for huge number of passengers travelling in mass transit network, and solve the dynamic passenger flow assignment problem effectively.(3) Coordinated passenger inflow control:For the increasing passenger congestion problem in the peak hours, some approaches for making inflow control strategies are studied. Two models based on mathematical program are proposed for solving the inflow control issue for single line layer and network layer, which aims to provide the theoretical basis and calculation methods for inflow control station choosing, control time and strength setting. This study extends the theory and method of traffic demand management for urban mass transit system, and offered a quantitative reference for the inflow control strategies. |
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