| In recent years, fatalities in road accidents and the mortality rate in ten thousand vehicles in China have been ranked first in the world. A variety of road safety projects have been implemented by traffic management departments, so the road traffic safety situation has made some improvement. How to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of road safety projects has been much attached by domestic and foreign scholars. Currently, the cost-benefit analysis method is commonly adopted to assess road safety projects. The benefits of road safety projects include the value of human life saved by the risk reduction of fatal accidents, as well as disability costs and property damages decreased by the risk reduction of non-fatal accidents. In which, how to rationally evaluate of the value of human life is one of research focuses and difficulties.The value of a statistical life (VOSL) is employed to estimate the value of human life saved by the risk reduction of fatal accidents, which has become an indispensably foundational data in cost-benefit analyses for road safety projects. VOSL in road traffic has a research history about40years in foreign countries. However, it starts late and related studies are rare in China. Based on the literature reviews of related researches, the formation mechanism model and evaluation models for VOSL in road traffic are put forward, regarding private car drivers as research objects. The stated preferenc (SP) surveys are conducted from2010to2011in Dalian, and the empirical tests are carried out based on the SP data. Finally, the estimates of VOSL in road traffic are calculated, aimed at providing references for the government to evaluate road safety projects. There are four main works.Firstly, based on extensive collections of related literatures of VOSL in road traffic, the research context is combed. By meta-analysis,202related papers from1995to2011are sorted out, and the reseach characteristics of VOSL in road traffic are analyzed from four aspects, including research topics, reference disciplines, research methods and analysis units. With three aspects of evaluation methods, evaluation models and influcing factors, the main research results are summarized. Thenafter, the research progress and shotages of VOSL in road traffic are concluded.Secondly, based on the theory of planned behavior and altruistic behavior, the formation mechanism model of VOSL in road traffic is put forward with the risk features and socioeconomic features of private car drivers introduced. Using the structural equation model, the empirical test is carried out. The effects of risk features on VOSL in road traffic are analyzed, and the effects of socioeconomic features are revealed furturely.Thirdly, based on the contingent valuation method (CVM) and the certainty calibration approach, the evaluation ideas are put forward. Using the multinominal logit (MNL) model, evaluation models of VOSL based on single, double and thriple bounded dichotomous formates are established, with individual features variables introduced. The survey is conducted, with the purchase of a traffic security product and the payment for a security road as hypothetical scenarios. Then the empirical test is carried out and VOSL estimates are obtained. The comparative analyses are conducted within the three evaluation models and within the two hypothetical scenarios, and the effects of individual features on VOSL are furturely revealed.Finally, based on the stated choice method (SCM) and the orthogonal experiment method, the evaluation ideas are put forward. Using the binary logit (BL) model and the mixed logit (ML) model, VOSL models are established with route features variables and individual features variables introduced. The survey is conducted, with the route choice as a hypothetical scenario. By the monte carlo method, the empirical test is carried out and VOSL estimates are obtained. Then the comparative analyses of evaluation models are conducted, and the effects of route features and individual features on VOSL are furturely revealed.The research of VOSL in road traffic can not only expand the areas of road traffic safety research and transportation economics research in China, the VOSL itself can also provide a fundamental parameter for evaluating road traffic safety projects, as well as provide references for insurance companies to develop and divide the compensation standards of fatal accidents. |
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