Research On The Decision-making Method Of The International River Water Resources Development And Utilization

The freshwater resources are limited in the world, and the spread of them is unbalanced, which leads to the unbalance of water supply and unsustainable utilization of water. With the rapid increase of the population and the development of society and economy, there would be a growing demand of water resources. Thence, international river water resources, which supply half of the gross water resources worldwide, have drawn increasingly attention and emphasis. What’s more, disputes associated with development and utilization of international river water are accordingly aroused among riparian states. Cross-nation nature of this sort of conflicts adds to the extent of difficulty in solving them.There are many international rivers in China——more than 110 international rivers including several separate branch outflows, and among them there are 41 main international rivers. In this aspect, China ranks third in the world, only next to Russia and Argentina. These international rivers flow through 19 states and influence nearly three billions people——about half of the world population. The exploitation for and utilization of the international river water resources play an important role in promoting sustainable economic development, in maintaining national security, in consolidating solidarity among nationalities, and in keeping social stability. It is also essential to the cooperation between China and the peripheral states and regional stability. In order to protect the interests of our country and avoid conflicts, or just to minimize the disadvantage, we are faced with and have to deal with many realistic and exigent problems, such as how to distribute the water resources rationally, how to make decisions on water resource exploitation and utilization, and how to undertake cooperation among riparian states. So, the research on decision-making methods of exploitation for and utilization of international river water resources is very meaningful, theoretically and practically.For various reasons, researches on decision-making methods of the exploitation for and utilization of international river water resources is inadequate, and most of them are qualitative researches, lacking quantitative analysis to give exact data support for decision-making. In this article, the author makes a research and analysis on the conflicts of international river water resources, and introduces the unified management and exploitation system of water resources, and then takes use of the game theory to establish the generalized uncooperative planar game theory model of international river water distribution. After that, the author establishes the multi-objective decision-making model of international river water resources exploitation and utilization, which make the international river water resources exploitation and utilization decision-making methods more diversified and complete, and pave the theoretical way for unified management and exploitation of international river water resources. In the end, the author makes an analysis of the decision-making influence of hydropower exploitation in the downstream of Lancang river through calculation, and then puts forward corresponding measures and advices on how to undertake international cooperation in this watershed area.This article focuses on the following aspects:(1) Based on the discussion of international river types, characteristics of existing problems, and the analysis of features and reasons of international river water conflicts, the author introduces the general solution of international water conflicts. To avoid international water conflicts, the author puts forward the unified management and exploitation system of fluvial water resources and discusses its necessity.(2) Based on the game theory and some assumption, the author establishes the generalized uncooperative planar game theory model of international river water distribution. The existence of Nash equilibrium solution on this problem is illustrated by generalized uncooperative game theory model Nikaido-Isoda Function and one-rank optimized condition is achieved. The optimum fluvial direct delivery water quantities of riparian states and water quantities acquired through other ways is calculated out on this model. Then the effects of the parameters in Nash equilibrium solution are analyzed in several instances, and the game theory process of water distribution in riparian states is studied.(3) The author mainly analyzes the possible influences on other objectives of the state and other downstream states when a riparian state take measures to achieve certain exploitation objectives. Such as the influences on hydropower, sail, irrigation, tourism, water supply of town and industry, and ecological protection. Then parameters reflecting influence relations are selected appropriately to establish a multi-objective decision-making model of international river water resources exploitation and utilization. Then, model calculation of the influence caused by one state’s hydropower station construction on other riparian states and itself is undertaken according to practical needs.(4) The interests of the six riparian states of Lancang-Mekong river basin is analyzed. With practical data, the comprehensive influence of downstream water resources exploitation and utilization on our country and other downstream states is calculated on the multi-objective decision-making model of international river water resources, so as to determine the decision-making base in China. Then the author moves to the international cooperation situation in Lancang-Mekong river basin water resources, and discusses the attitudes and manners China should adopt from the perspective of maintaining the core state interests, and puts forward suggestions and measures thereafter.