Study On China’ Low Carbon Modem Agriculture Development

Climate change is the most serious global environmental problems. On one hand, agriculture sector has become the second most important sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the oil-agriculture model. On the other hand, climate change will lead to the contradiction between the production potential and the agricultural resources supply, bringing great uncertainty in agriculture outputs. As the largest agriculture production country, China has taken the first rank not only on the proportion of agricultural GHGs emissions of total emissions, also with two major agricultural sources of GHGs (CH4and N2O) emissions amounting to the most parts. If agricultural production continues in a similar linear mode as today, the GHGs emissions relative agriculture impact on global climate change will increase. Meanwhile, cross-pollution with soil, air, water and negative externalities such as food insecurity will become increasingly serious with modern agricultural development mode characterized by mechanization and chemicalization. Therefore, the study of low-carbon modern agriculture mode is meaningful not only in theory but also in practice, which can provide guidance for China’s agricultural mitigation technology extension and implementation of low-carbon agriculture mode.Academic world has carried out a research on low-carbon agriculture and achieved initial fruit. From the view of research points, research topics mainly reflected in adaptation but neglecting mitigation, macro-scale aspects but neglecting micro-scale, mitigation technology but neglecting extension services, especially empirical analysis on farmers’mitigation technology adoption was still rare. In this study, firstly, we develop a connotation framework composed by a concept group, core elements and measure indicators. Secondly, we calculate China’s agricultural carbon emissions with carbon footprint theory and life cycle approach (LCA) and decompose the influencing factors. Thirdly, we employ Delphi method to the applicability screening of mitigation technologies and management practices of GHGs emissions from agriculture sector. Taking paddy as an example, we examine empirically the determinants of mitigation technology adoption willing and the number of technology packages. Finally, we excavate the coupling relationship between technology and organization, as well as policies during the implementation of low-carbon agriculture mode, meanwhile, a quantitative comparative analysis is applied to emission effect of different rice cultivation, cost-benefit, marginal abatement costs through a typical case study. Based on the theoretical and empirical research, some policy suggestions on China’s low-carbon modern agriculture development are proposed. The paper is organized as five parts:The first part is "Introduction" and "Literature review", including the chapter1,2and3. Chapter1describes the boundary of this study, the background and significance, framework and methodology, innovation and insufficient. Literature review section introduces theoretical reviews and practices at home and abroad. From research topics and methods, literatures abroad have formed the integrated analytical framework of natural science matching with field experiments and social science (mainly economics) matching with various models. Domestic literatures focus on low-carbon agriculture connotation, mode and road, necessity and constraints, policy and mechanism design. From practices at home and abroad, practices abroad focus on formulation national strategy for adaptation and mitigation and GHGs inventory of agricultural carbon sources and sinks. Agricultural mitigation subsidies and carbon tradable market have entered the implementation phase. China focuses on carrying out cooperation, such as adaptation to climate change dependent on international projects, and trying out carbon emissions trading, as well as carrying out the voluntary market carbon credits relying on the China Green Carbon Fund. Overview of domestic and foreign research, the majority research focus on the macro-scale, it is lack of behavioral analysis from farmers’ aspects based on the applicability and economic mitigation technology packages.In the second part, we develop a connotation system and an analytical framework of low-carbon modern agriculture, including chapter4. This chapter sums up theories of agricultural development stages, connotation of modern agriculture and its development mode, to try to grasp the stage of modern agriculture, the connotation development, dominant modes. Then we draw a conclusion that low-carbon modern agriculture is one of specific agriculture development modes during the realization stage of modern agriculture. We present the modern agriculture connotation system including four components:the definition, related definition, core elements, and measure indicators based on reviews and theoretical deductions. Furthermore, we compare low-carbon agriculture with relative agriculture development modes such as ecological agriculture, circular agriculture and organic agriculture. Then we construct an analytical framework of low-carbon modern agriculture including a foundation work, development path, policy system, and the empirical analysis in this paper mainly test two foundation works: development judgement and technology application.The third part including chapter5is a macro-scale empirical study. For IPCC GHGs emissions inventory in agricultural sector does not take agricultural energy and embodied carbon in agricultural inputs as well as agricultural waste into the accounting system, this accounting method seriously underestimates the impacts of the agricultural production activities on climate change, resulting in mitigation measures deviation. We account the total agricultural production GHGs emissions with tiered life cycle assessment (TLCA) and carbon footprint intensity of the whole nation and regions in China from1995to2010, and then reveal its spatial-temporal characteristics. We use complete decomposition method evaluating the contribution of all the driving factors through transformation of Kaya-Porter identical equation, putting forward to low-carbon agricultural development modes in view of regional differentiation based on total accounting and time series analysis.The fourth part including chapter6,7,8is a micro-scale empirical study. First of all, an initial long list of mitigation measures is obtained based on a literature review and expert interview, then the Modified Delphi method is used to explore expert opinions from interdisciplinary sphere, and a final short list of agricultural mitigation applicability technologies is screened. A final short list of three topics and eighteen measures is drawn up in light of mechanism and measure certainty, technically feasibility, abatement potential, increase or stability in yield, practices easily adopted by farmers. Secondly, we employ the binary logit model and count data model to model socioeconomic, institutional and environmental factors influencing the adoption willing and the number of technology packages from paddy CH4mitigation technology. Finally, the study takes He-Heng village which is located in Jiangsu province as a case study, excavating the experience of rice cultivation technology, organization, policies during the implementation of low-carbon agriculture, comparing the emissions effects, cost-benefit, marginal abatement costs with different paddy cultivation portfolio selection.In the fifth part including chapter9, the results and policy implications are generated. The macro empirical results indicate that agricultural carbon emissions have been in the gradual upward trend since1995, which can be divided into four periods:rapid growth period, slow growth period, growth rate rebound period and slowing-down period. The average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions is0.67%, while that of carbon footprint intensity decrease is4.19%annually. The tiered structure of carbon footprint analysis shows that agricultural source emissions are on the downward trend, while agricultural energy, embodied carbon in agricultural inputs, agricultural waste emissions are in the upward trend. Energy carbon intensity and energy intensity of unit yield are the main driving factors of agricultural GHGs mitigation and emissions respectively. The econometric results indicate that enhancing farmers’awareness of climate change can significantly improve mitigation technology adoption willing, the mitigation technology demonstration from demonstration households can significantly increase the number of mitigation technology adoption, while agricultural extension services, credit availability, construction or rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure significantly affect the adoption willing and the number of technology packages. Subsidies or carbon trading price of CO2-eq per acre or emission reduction units determined by marginal abatement costs can promote regional agricultural production mode converting from the base model to the target model. Our research results make us possible to generate some policy implications.