Research On Emergency Decision-making Theory And Coping Mechanism Of Public Crisis Management In Urban Agglomeration

With the development of information technology and the improvement of thetraffic conditions, the economic relations between adjacent cities are more and moreclosely connected and the mutual effects are more and more serious, therefore urbanagglomeration is finally formed. Urban agglomeration is not only the main form ofChina in the rapid development of urbanization, the main carrier of economic andsocial development, but also the innovation area of wealth accumulation as well asscientific and technological culture. The safety of urban agglomeration area is closelyrelated to the enhancement of regional competitiveness and the implementation ofimportant national strategies. At present, the studies on the public crisis in urbanagglomeration are still very weak, and most studies focusing on the qualitativedescription or the analysis of a particular urban agglomeration, have not yet formed acomprehensive set of operable system on public crisis emergency decision theory andeffective coping mechanism in urban agglomeration.Given this situation, this article makes deep research on the predisposition,formation mechanism, emergency decision-making theory and coping mechanism ofthe public crisis in urban agglomeration based on the urban agglomeration theory,complexity science theory, game theory and fuzzy multi-attribute groupdecision-making theory. The main studies and innovations are as follow.(1) Research on the predisposition and formation mechanism of the public crisis inurban agglomeration. Firstly, this paper analyses the connotation of the public crisis ofurban agglomeration. Then, the predisposition of the public crisis of urbanagglomeration is explored from the operation level, strategy level and sudden level.Finally, the article reveals the formation mechanism about public crisis in urbanagglomeration by employing the social combustion theory, the self-organizationtheory and the brittleness theory. These analyses provide a basis to solve the problemof emergency decision-making of the public crisis in urban agglomeration.(2) Construction of emergency decision-making model of the public crisis inurban agglomeration. First of all, from the perspective of static, this article proposes an emergency alternative selection model based on interval intuitionistic fuzzymultiple attribute group decision making theory, in which the decision expert weightsand the attributes weights are unknown. Then, from the perspective of dynamic, thispaper analyzes the dynamic game between the crisis managers and the crisis withinthe framework of incomplete information dynamic game model in order to providedecision support for the formation of an emergency plan for crisis managers.(3) Research on the evaluation of the public crisis management in urbanagglomeration management. This paper studies the problem of the evaluation of thepublic crisis management in urban agglomeration management from the performanceevaluation of risk management before crisis and the evaluation of the managementcapability after crisis respectively. On the one hand, we construct a performanceevaluation model of crisis risk management based on the fuzzy AHP and fuzzyTOPSIS methods. On the other hand, a fuzzy TOPSIS evaluation model based onalpha level sets is put forward to evaluate the management capability of the publiccrisis management of urban agglomeration, and a case study to evaluate thegovernment’s management capability during the "SARS" events,“Southernsnowstorm”,“Wenchuan earthquake” and “Sanlu events” is carried out to testify thefeasibility and effectiveness of the model.(4) Research on the coping mechanism of the public crisis management in urbanagglomeration. On the one hand, this paper designs an effective public crisis synergygovernance mechanism in urban agglomeration use for reference the basic theory andmethodology of synergetics theory. On the other hand, a five-perspective mode ofbuilding the safeguard mechanism of urban agglomeration public crisis is proposedfrom the information assurance, technical support, resource guarantee, legislativeguarantee and educational security.The research, with great reference value and practical significance to prevent andcontrol public crisis events in urban agglomeration, expands and enriches thetheoretical system on public crisis management, and promotes the development of theemergency decision-making theory, improves the operating efficiency of the publiccrisis management system of urban agglomeration.