| After the implementation of family planning policy, China’s population age structure has undergone great change, with the rapid decline in the population dependency ratio of children, and the elderly dependency ratio rising slowly. The macroeconomic effects of problems caused by changes in the population age structure have attracted more and more attention of scholars and the government. Research the impact of population age on economic development can not only deepen the understanding of growth, consumption, savings and other economic phenomena, but also respond to China’s aging population problem by providing a solution and recommendations. The paper focuses on the study of the macroeconomic effects of changes in the population age structure, starting by describing from both theoretically and empirically the economic growth effects of changes in the age structure of the population, and then the paper gives a detailed analysis of its effect on labor supply, consumption, savings, pensions and other intermediate economic development parts.From the existing achievements, the economic growth effect of changes in the age structure of the population mainly concentrates in the demographic dividend stage or aging stage. And the abundant labor supply can promote economic growth and generate demographic dividend, which has been a consensus among the scholars. But the impact of the aging population on economic growth is still controversial. Existing research on changes in population age structure of positive economic growth, but also the negative effects of the lack of comprehensive, system is not enough. Effects of changes in population age structure on economic growth are time-varying, dynamic, and over time. The population age structure, ranging from a high proportion of children, a high proportion of the labor force and then to an aging population, influences the economic growth in different models. Furthermore, due to the lack of strict mathematical analysis and research framework, whether changes in population age structure can influence the consumption and saving significantly, and whether this influence is positive or negative haven’t yet reached a consensus among scholars. Many studies overlooked that the effects of changes in the age structure on consumption and savings behavior are complex and in stages, and thus with direct use of static analysis methods these studies lead to differences in findings.To define different stages of change in population age structure and their positive or negative impact on China’s economic growth, to explore whether the increase in the proportion of dependent population will slow down China’s economic growth rate, to find out the potential influence of the fertility and population policy and delayed retirement policy adjustments on the future labor supply, to predict the impact of population aging on the Chinese pension system, to determine changes in population age structure and their positive or negative economic effects on China’s future economic development, all of the above issues have important theoretical and practical significance.The paper is divided into three parts, which are organized as follows:The first part contains chapters 1,2 and 3, which is the basis of the paper, including the introduction, literature review and relevant theoretical basis. This part mainly introduces the background and significance of the research and describes the major innovation of this paper and shortcomings. From the research methods and main findings, this part makes a detailed review of the economic effects of changes in population age structure both at home and from abroad, notes the shortcomings of existing research and points out the next direction. In the relevant theoretical basis, the paper will focus on the latest research achievements of the continuous overlapping generations model in population-economy field.The second part contains chapters of 4,5,6,7,8, which are the main contents of the paper. This part includes the economic growth effects of the changing population age structure, the effect of labor supply, consumption and saving effect and their impact on the social pension insurance. Chapter 4 establishes the theoretical framework of the impact of population age structure changes on economic growth, makes a comparative static analysis, and then determines the economic growth effects of changes in population age structure. Chapter 5 mainly studies the potential impact of changes in the population age structure on future population size and future labor supply, judging the three scenarios and future labor supply tendency under different labor participation rates. In Chapter 6 and Chapter 7, the continuous overlapping generations model is extended. The effects of changes in population age structure on consumption and savings are studied. Discussion from both theoretical and empirical aspects of population age structure and household consumption, non-linear relationship between savings, dependency burden demonstrates different stages of demographic factors on consumption, savings, positive and negative effects and the impact of each inflection point. In Chapter 8 it mainly studies that change in population age structure influence social endowment insurance.The third part is Chapter 9 that summarizes the paper’s main conclusions and policy recommendations are given in this chapter.During the study, the paper focuses on the micro and e macro, qualitative and quantitative, static and dynamic, structure and total combined method. Conclusions are as follows:Firstly, after building the population age structure, capital investment and economic growth mathematical model, this paper theoretically finds that adequate labor supply can improve the efficiency of physical capital, strengthen the promotion effect of the physical, human capital investment on economic growth. The reduction of raising burden has made important contributions to China’s economic growth. Based on the theoretical model and through the empirical study, the paper finds that:as to reducing the burden of raising, its contribution to economic growth rate is 25.7%; the elderly dependency ratio and economic growth is in an inverted U-shaped relationship, the impact of population aging on economic growth is positive in the beginning and then negative; with the increase of physical, human capital investment which indirectly effects the economic growth, the effect of child population dependency ratio is weaker than the elderly dependency ratio.Secondly, the proportion of China’s working-age population in total population continues to increase in recent decades. But since the year 2011, the proportion has been declining. The maximum size of the working age population will be reached in the year 2015, and then, regardless of high fertility rates, in reference to what the program, the working-age population will decline. But if China’s population growth changes with the guidance of high fertility program, the number of working-age population will rebound in the year 2060. Under the high fertility program, the size of the working age population shows a U-shaped structure.Compared with fixed labor participation rate, with the participation of the variable labor rate, the future labor supply has the following tendency:the number of youth labor supply will decrease rapidly, and the number of elderly and the total labor supply will decline slowly; the effect of extended years of education on labor supply is weaker than that of delayed retirement; in the benchmark, middle and high three scenarios, by delaying the retirement age to increase the number of elderly labor supply, this effect is weaker than that of increasing the fertility rate. Though delayed retirement can make the total labor supply increase temporarily, no matter what the program, these policies can not change the overall decline in labor supply.Thirdly, the paper introduces intergenerational upward and downward wealth flow function to expand the contiguous overlapping generations model. From the micro and macro perspectives, the impact of age structure changing on the consumption and savings of residents is analyzed mathematically and empirically. It is found that children dependency ratio and the ratio of consumption is in an inverted U-shaped dynamic relationship, and the elderly dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio exists has a U-shaped dynamic relationship; the U-shaped relationship between children dependency ratio and the savings rate is non-linear, and the effects of elderly dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio on household savings rate is non-linear. Compared with children dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio is a more important factor which influences people’s consumption and saving. This means that with the accelerating process of China’s aging population, the elderly dependency ratio is an important factor causing the downturn of consumption and the upturn of savings.Fourthly, given the impact of changes in population age structure on the social pension insurance system, which is mainly reflected in the elderly population, the paper constructs a theoretical model between the aging population level and personal pension income. It draws a conclusion that there is a negative relationship between the two. After the establishment of empirical model and completion of regression analysis, the paper finds that:the elderly dependency ratio and the level of government financial support and pension spending are positively correlated; residents’education level, economic growth factors and the level of urbanization and social insurance spending are negatively correlated. To release the fertility limits, adjust the population age structure, increase government investment, improve the level of human capital and the level of urbanization, and to accelerate economic growth, all of the above can weaken the negative impact of population aging, and then help reduce social dependency burden.Overall, the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure are two-way and in stages. At present, China has full access to the positive effects brought about by the changes in population age structure, and achieves a "demographic dividend". But considering the future trends, the economic growth, labor supply and social pension insurance will be affected negatively and significantly by the population age structure (with the keep on decline in the population dependency ratio of children, and the elderly dependency ratio rising continued.). Further aging of the population age structure will result in continuous decline of the consumption rate and the increase of savings. The positive effect of current age structure on economic development is disappearing, with the negative effect emerging. Therefore, adjusting the age structure of the population is of great urgency. |
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