| With the continuous development of Chinese economy and society,and constantly improve the old-age service system,medical and health services continue to improve,constantly improve the living standards of residents and many other factors,the population age structure changes significantly.The rising proportion of elderly population has a significant impact on the employment structure and industrial structure.The statistical data show that the proportion of elderly population and population growth were 4.61%,36.80% in the past ten years in China,which means that the aging of population in China is constantly increasing.Meanwhile,there are significant differences between different regions in the national distribution.That is,the aging degree of eastern region was significantly higher than that in the western region.In2013,Chinese industrial structure from the past "two,three,one" the pattern of gradual adjustment for now "three,two,one" pattern,and the third industrial added value proportion exists significant regional differences: the eastern region is higher than the central region,the central region is higher than the western region,the coastal area is higher than that of inland areas.To this end,this paper makes an in-depth theoretical and quantitative study on the impact of aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure.Draw the following conclusions.Firstly,in the research of the impact mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,we find that population aging affects the industrial structure from two aspects of supply and demand.Further,the derivation of the Solow Model of economic growth,we believe that the mechanism of the ageing affecting the upgrading of the industrial structure is for the aging population increases,the savings rate decreases,the per capita savings down to the lower,capital deepening and upgrading of industrial structure.Secondly,the Johansen cointegration test results confirm the accuracy of the derived significant conduction mechanism and conduction direction.Meanwhile,the Grainger causality test results show that the aging of the population to help predict the savings rate,savings rate is helpful to the prediction of capital deepening,capital deepening on the upgrading of the industrial structure prediction helps;which also shows that the reliability of transmission mechanism the derivation of the Solow model of economic growth.Thirdly,we,selecting the2003~2014 inter provincial panel data in China,make a quantitative study on the impactof aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure based on the mathematical derivation and test.The results show that the effects of population aging on the upgrading of the industrial structure coefficient is-0.229 and through the 5% level of confidence,which means,without considering other factors,the aging of the population each increased 1%,the upgrading of the industrial structure will be reduced by 0.229%.The result indicates that the population aging has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.Moreover,the nonlinear effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure is represented by "inverted U" relationship.The policy system has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between technological progress and upgrading of industrial structure.In addition,there are regional differences from the aging of the population affecting the industrial structure upgrading.That is,the aging of the population in the eastern region has a positive role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure.In the central and western regions,the aging of the population will inhibit the Midwest industrial structure upgrading,and there is higher inhibitory effect of the aging affecting industrial structure upgrading in central regions.Finally,combining with the results of quantitative research,we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. |
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