Analysis Of The Effect Of Population Structure On Fertility ——Based On Panel Data Of 15 Provinces

Since 1992,China’s fertility rate has been much lower than the replacement fertility level of 2.1%for a long time,and according to the seventh national census,only 12 million people will be born in 2020,reducing the fertility rate to 1.3%,much lower than the replacement fertility level,and falling into the low fertility trap of 1.5%.The long-term low fertility rate will bring a series of hazards such as the reduction of the working population and the increase of the burden of retirement,etc.Despite the formulation of a comprehensive two-child fertility policy,its effect is not optimistic,and in 2021 China has reintroduced the three-child policy,hoping to improve the low fertility rate in China.In this context,this paper analyzes the current situation and spatial pattern of population structure by dividing the population structure into six levels:age structure,gender structure,industrial structure,cultural structure,urban-rural structure,and the structure of unemployment rate change,and studies the impact of population structure change on fertility rate,in order to provide supporting measures to guarantee the "three-child policy".This paper analyzes the current demographic situation and spatial pattern,and examines the impact of demographic changes on the fertility rate,in order to provide recommendations for supporting the "three-child policy" to promote balanced demographic and socioeconomic development.This paper uses panel data of 15 provinces where first-tier cities and new first-tier cities are located to study their effects on fertility from six dimensions of demographic structure.The promulgation of the comprehensive two-child policy has released a positive effect on the rise of fertility rate,but the effect is short-lived,and the fertility rate in China starts to fall to 1.3 in 2020,falling into the low fertility trap,and the provincial distribution of fertility rate shows a distribution of high in the west and low in the east;the current situation of population structure is that the population sex ratio shows a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019,and starts to rise again in 2020,and the provincial distribution of the population sex ratio shows a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019.In the population age structure,the child dependency ratio is decreasing year by year,while the old age dependency ratio is increasing year by year,and the child dependency ratio is changing from high to low values from the west to the central,east and north,while the old age dependency ratio is scattered in the high and low value areas;the urbanization rate is increasing year by year,and the provincial distribution of urbanization rate is high in the north of the east and low in the central,west and south;the population cultural structure is increasing year by year.In the cultural structure of the population,the proportion of men and women with tertiary education or above is increasing,and the difference between the two is gradually decreasing,and the provincial distribution of men and women with tertiary education or above is shifting from high to low values from north to west.In the distribution of population industry,the proportion of employed population in primary industry is high in the west and low in the east,the proportion of employed population in secondary industry is high in the east and low in the west,and the proportion of employed population in tertiary industry is high in the north and low in the west;the registered unemployment rate of population in urban areas fluctuates,and there is no increasing or decreasing trend,and the unemployment rate is high in the west and low in the east.Second,the correlation between the 10 indicators selected from the six dimensions of the population structure and the fertility rate was measured by gray correlation analysis,and the indicators with high correlation were introduced into the panel data model,and the best model was selected from the three models of the panel data and fitted to the sample by using feasible generalized least squares estimation（FGLS）.The results of the gray correlation analysis show that the selected 10 indicators are all strongly correlated with the fertility rate.In the panel data regression,the results of the panel data spatial correlation and the panel data regression equation for 15 provinces in China according to Chapter 5 show that there is no spatial correlation in the fertility rate.the urbanization rate,the proportion of female tertiary population or above and the increase in the proportion of the employed population in the primary industry have a facilitating effect on the fertility rate,and the sex ratio,the juvenile dependency ratio,the An increase in the gender ratio,the old-age dependency ratio,the proportion of employed population in the tertiary sector,and the urban registered unemployment rate will lead to a decrease in the fertility rate.There is no significant effect of the proportion of male population with tertiary education or above and the proportion of employed population in secondary industry on the fertility rate.Finally,based on the model results,this paper mainly proposes the following recommendations:focus on publicity and education on gender equality,reduce the pressure of childcare,reduce the pressure of old age,promote the urbanization process,optimize the employment environment for women,reduce the cost of childbirth for employed women,optimize the structure of the primary industry,optimize the working environment for employed people in the tertiary industry,and stabilize the employment level.