Study On The Dynamic And Mechanism Of Economic Disparity And Convergence In Western China

The economic development in Western China has made remarkable achievement, and economic comprehensive strength has greatly ascended since China launched the Policy of Reform and Opening up, especially since the Great Western Development Policy was implemented. But, Western China being underdeveloped area in China, in the process of development, people tend to focus on how to improve the whole level of western regional economy, and how to narrow the development gap between eastern and western regions, while little attention is put on the western region internal disparity and internal coordinated development problem. However, the author deems, being an important part of the national economy as a whole, the issue of the economic disparity and coordinated development in the interior of Western China is also important.In fact, on one hand, without the western internal coordinated development, it is impossible to have the whole coordinated development of the national economy, and on the other hand, it is helpful to insist on the region internal coordinated development strategy, which helps to promote the western regional economic development as a whole, and helps to narrow the economic development gap between eastern and western regions. In view of this, this dissertation is focused on the interior of Western China, and makes a systematical study on economic disparity and economic growth convergence of the12provinces in Western China.The dissertation goes along the logic of "theory analyzing (?) empirical tests (?) countermeasures". The specific content is as follows:First of all, in the theoretical aspect, the dissertation makes a systematic review on neo-classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory, analyzing the theoretical connotation, and clearing the difference of theoretical conclusions about economic growth convergence between the two growth theories. And then, based on the theoretical connection between the economic growth sources and the economic growth convergence, and also based on existing researches, the study concludes and expands three theory convergence mechanisms for economic growth convergence, which are,(1) endowment convergence mechanism, to investigate the input elements to promote economic growth convergence, including labor input, physical capital and human capital level;(2) technology convergence mechanism, to investigate the technological level how to influence economic growth convergence;(3) system convergence mechanism, to investigate the social systems how to influence economic growth convergence.Secondly, in the empirical study aspect, the dissertation makes empirical studies by using real economic data of12provinces in Western China. Empirical studies include:(1) By σ convergence testing empirically, the dynamic characteristics of regional economic disparity itself is deployed, using the method of empirical mode decomposition(EMD); what’s more, the influence of the development of the three industries on the fluctuations of regional economic disparity is reviewed.(2) Using the method of spatial panel data model (SPDM), the economic growth of absolute β convergence test is empirically carried out, to investigate the existence of economic growth convergence.(3) Again, using the method of spatial panel data model (SPDM), the economic growth of conditional β convergence is empirically tested, to investigate convergence mechanism, and the causes of growth convergence.Finally, according to the theory and the empirical results, some feasible countermeasures are put forward, for regional coordinated development in the new stage of the Great Western Development Policy being carried on.The main empirical conclusions have achieved as follows:(1) During1952-2009, in the view of output per capita, the economic disparity of western region interior shows significant "N" shaped curve characteristic; and since1978, the regional economic disparity is of "U" shaped curve characteristic. General speaking, the regional economic disparity tends to expand continuously after establishment of the socialist market economic system since1992, and the economic disparity is in record high at present. Further research finds that the unbalanced development of three industries has a significant effect on the fluctuation of economic disparity, which means the industry development plays an important role in regional coordinated development.(2) From the view of output per capita, in the1978-1992period, the economic growth rate is negatively correlated with the initial economic level, but there is no statistical significance, therefore, it refuses absolute β convergence; while in the1978-2009and1992-2009periods, economic growth rate is statistical significant positive correlated with the initial economic level, which suggests that the economy is absolutely divergent. From the perspective of per capita income, urban and rural residents’income shows different convergence property in different periods; and the whole point of view demonstrates that urban residents’income tends to diverge more than rural residents’income.(3) In1978-2009,1978-1992and1992-2009three stages, the western region economic growth is of conditional β convergence through the proper selection of control conditions. Among these conditions, the endowment convergence mechanism and technology convergence mechanism tend to promote greater convergence, while system convergence mechanism has no significant function to promote economic growth convergence.Through the theoretical investigations and empirical researches, the dissertation achieves some innovations in the following aspects:(1) The study expands the economic growth convergence mechanism. This expansion makes the convergence mechanism more theoretical connotation, and makes the convergence mechanism stronger inclusiveness.(2) SPDM method is used to test conditional β convergence, which shows some certain degree of innovation in the application of methods. In the existing studies, the spatial econometric analysis is mainly used for CROSS DATA to test absolute and/or conditional β convergence; while for PANEL DATA, it is mainly used in absolute β convergence test. So it is some of innovation for using SPDM to test conditional β convergence.(3) Some parts of conclusions are of innovation. It finds that the west economy disparity show "U" shaped curve characteristic since the Policy of Reform and Opening up was launched. Also, it finds that the Great Western Development Policy has helped to develop economy, while has not much helped to narrow economic disparity. What’s more, it finds that blind pursuing "upgrading the industrial structure" is against sustainable economic development.(4) The dissertation attempts to innovatively put forward a "three levels linkage of regional policy system for coordinated development", including the central, regional and local three levels. In the policy system, some suggestions are put forward to promote region economy coordinated development.Though it achieves some useful results, due to the theoretical and practical economic data restrictions, this study still has some deficiencies, including the limitation of the systematicness in human capital measuring, and so on. Further follow-up study is needed to improve these problems, along with the constant development of theory and the improvement of economic data in the future.