A Study On Convergence Of Economic Growth In West China

With the development of the thirty years of reforming and opening up, China’ s economic development make a spurt of progress, and people’ s living standard has been greatly improved. But it cannot be ignored that the economic development presents the obvious gradient between the eastern, central and western regions. Even in the western regions, provinces between economic growth is unbalanced. Then, at the same stage of development between the area, wether to have the convergence of economic growth? If there is convergence, and what kind ? For this class of problems, the present theory is controversial, and lack of empirical research results on the western region of China. Therefore, it is necessary to research on the western region of China’ s economic growth convergence problem, in the analysis of the western region provinces in the differences of economic development and economic growth convergence condition foundation from the perspective of exploring the spatial correlation of the convergence property and convergence mechanism, to provide decision basis for the implementation of further promoting the strategy of the western development.First of all, from the reality of western provinces’ spatial correlation, creating a spatial weight matrix and putting the factors which influence province each other into consideration, use the spatial econometric method to analyze to make the conclusions more accurately and effectively, to fill the lack of prior results and to make the results more close to the western regions’ actual situation.Besides, use the spatial panel data model to empirically examine the convergence of economic growth in the western region, combining different kinds advantages of models. It not only investigated individual heterogeneity, but also ensure that the richness of the data from the model method and the reliability of the study conclusion.Moreover, based on the new classical economic growth theory and endogenous economic growth theory as the guide, taking the actual per capita GDP western region provinces as the research object, considering the physical capital stock, population growth, employment, three industrial structure, import and export trade and other economic structure control variables, the paper uses the correlation model and method of spatial statistical analysis in turn to make the spatial panel of economic growth convergence test on 12 western regions in China, including economic indicators in 1978-2013.Finally, according to the empirical results, we put forward policy recommendations to create external conditions to achieve convergence for the economic growth in the western region of China.Through the research, the following have been found:Firstly, the spatial statistical analysis is found by real per capita GDP of the western province regions, the phase characteristics of province regions economic growth in the years 1978-2013 exist σ convergence and divergence.Secondly, through the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) test, we find that the western region provinces economic growth in the years 1978-2013 continued to exist significant spatial correlation.Thirdly, using spatial panel data model(SPDM) analysis, find that the western provinces’ actual GDP per capita growth trends not have absolute beta convergence, but the economic development has shown a significant divergence in 1978-2013. A provincial economic growth rate will not only has a positive spillover effect on the surround adjacent provinces economic growth rate, but also transfers to produce positive shock effect to the surrounding adjacent provinces economic growth rate because of the economic fluctuation by external circumstances.Fourthly, the western region provinces economic growth does not exist the conditional β convergence in 1978-2013, but there are changes in the conditional βconvergence trend. When control the factor into single and combined economic structure, we find that the western region economy growth both don’ t exist significant conditional β convergence in 1978-2013. With the increasing economic variables, divergent economic growth gradually transforms into the conditional β convergence trend. The policy implication of the result is so clearly that through control the western regions various economic factors rationally and effectively, economic growth will exists the conditional β convergence in the long term.