The Quantitative Research On Volatility Of Thermal Coal And Its Influence On Domestic Economic Growth

Thermal coal, also known as Fuel coal, burning coal, is the main body of China’scoal.The proved reserves of thermal coal accounts75.83%of coal reserves.China hasimported101million tons of thermal coal in2012, with an increase of83.8%.Coupledwith cancellation of the dual pricing system,the slowdown in economic growth andother factors,domestic thermal coal price become more volatile, which has significantimpact on price system and economics, especially on safety of large-scale coalenterprise and mining cities.Based on the geological survey items:Mineral resourcesdivision of Ordos Basin and Technical and economic evaluation of Energy andChemical minerals,the paper selects dynamic data of thermal coal price,economicgrowth and import since2002,researchs on the volatility of domestic thermal coalprice and its influence on economic growth.The paper makes the followingdiscoveries:The study of thermal coal price shows that there are three complete contractioncycles and one uncompletedrecovery cycle between2002and2013.The averagelength of a cycle is about30months, and extending-closing ratio is0.69. The volatilityof thermal coal price is mainly the result of alternative energy prices, includingforeign thermal coalprice (18.0%) and oil prices (14.05%).The contribution of marketsupply and industrial growth are11.31%and9.46%, while thecontribution ofproportion of imports in the thermal coal trade is only2.76%, so at this stage weshould increase imports of thermal coal.Thermal coal price is not Granger cause of economic growth and investmentrelationship is not obvious.There is two-way causal relationship between thermal coalprice andimports, exports.but one-way causal relationship between thermal coal andconsumption.This means that thermal coal price fluctuations affect the consumptionand import and export part in an indirect way to economic growth. The relationshipbetween thermal coal prices and economic growth and its elements shows in threeways:(1) There is long-term equilibrium relationship between thermal coal pricevolatility and economic growth, consumption, imports and exports;(2) There is asignificant asymmetry effect on lag flexible and conductionstrength.The lag flexibleand conduction strength of Economic growth to thermal coal price are-0.11and18.18%,while the opposite effect are2.41and3.92%;(3)The dynamic relationshipshows significant satge characteristics,with two inflection point in2004and2008.Rely on thermal coal mining, Ordos city has achieved economic growth miracle inrecent years.But sharply fall of coal price lead to serious recession since2012, whichaccelerates rupture of private lending capital chain and bubble burst of real estate,impairs its planning support equipment manufacturing industry, makes a seriousimpediment to the difficulty of industrial transformation.We should establish thermalcoal futures market, developalternative energy, improve the proportion of imports,control the blind development of energy-intensive industries, and increase domesticexploration efforts in order to avoidtoo frequent and large fluctuations in thermal coalprices,ensure the security of national energy.