Research On The Effects Of Coal Price Volatility On The Yulin Economy

For the past two years,coal price had continued to fall,bringing serious impacts on theeconomic development of Yulin which was dominated by the coal industries, the speed ofeconomic growth went into free fall and transformation development was extremely urgent.Inview of this, the paper reviews systematically the domestic and foreign research,and studysthe effects and mechanism of coal price shocks on the Yulin economy by theoretical andempirical,qualitative and quantitative analysis,the main results of the research are as follows:（1）Analyze the current tendency of coal price volatility and economic development inYulin and find that some inductive and collaborative relationships exist in the long term.（2）Choose Yulin’s2012-2013monthly data and use econometrics model to investigatethe short-term and long-term effects,including the average time lags of the coal priceconduction.The study finds that a percentage change in the falling speed of coal price shockswill cause the development speed of gross national product,fixed assets investments,fiscalrevenue,and price index down3.7%,2.96%,0.002%,0.12%respectively.The average timelags of coal price shocks on the indicators above are respectively5months,3months,3.5months and5months.（3）Introduce a variable parameter state space model, explore further the time-varyingefficiency of coal price shocks on the economic development in Yulin.The study finds that:theeffects of coal price down on the gross national product showing a trend of rise from month tomonth;The effects of coal price down on the fixed assets investments behave widelyfluctuations,which are negative in January-February,but positive on March-December;Theeffects of coal price down on the fiscal income characterized by the alternately positive andnegative variations and the number of months showing positive effects are less than thenegative ones;The effects of coal price down on the price index transform from negative in2012to positive in2013.（4）Put forward some suggestions for the transformation development in Yulin, mainly including:Optimize the industrial structure, actively foster continued industries;Guide socialinvestment,expand infrastructure investment;Enhance scientific and technological innovationand strive to introduce high-end talents;Develop private economy,promote small andmedium-sized enterprise strength;Strengthen the supervision of export,improve the transportcapacity for export.