The Policy Simulation Of Coal Resource-based City's Industrial Economic System Copes With Energy Price Shock

In recent years,the economic development of coal resource-based cities are facing unprecedented challenges due to the decline of coal price and crude oil price.Facing this change,central and local governments have introduced a series of regulatory policies,such as production limited policy,tax-fee reformation,etc.However,the effects of these policies are not in idea,coal price dropped lower and lower,a sustainable decline in corporate profits,and many coal cities are also in a serious economic depression.In recent years,many scholars have carried out active and beneficial exploration on the problems of economic development,transformation and sustainable development of coal cities.However,as a result of research angle of view,the research on the economic development of coal cities under energy prices shock is still limited.So,it is necessary to discuss the effectiveness of each regulation policy under the realistic background of the drastic fluctuation of energy price.Based on this,firstly,taking Ordos as the sample,we devided the industrial economic system of Ordos into four subsystems,including coal industry subsystem,coal-chemical industry subsystem,downstream industry subsystem,and manufacture-related service industry,and built the system dynamic model of the coal resource-based city copes with energy prices shock.Secondly,according to the current situation of coal and crude oil price and the analysis of the regulation policies of coal city,we simulated the output value and total profit of coal industry,coal-chemical industry,downstream industries of coal and coal-chemical industries and the gross industries under different energy prices scenarios and regulatory policy scenarios by Vensim,and revealed the evolution behavior and trend of coal resource-based city's economic system under the impact of energy price shocks.based on this,we simulated and explained the regulation effects of the related policies from the perspective of their cumulative effect,synergistic effect and crowding-out effect.Finally,in order to reduce the impact of energy price shocks on the industrial economic system of coal city,this paper put forward some countermeasures and suggestions based on the conclusions and the effect of various policies.The conclusions are as follows:First,the evolution and trend of each industry in the industrial economic system of Ordos under the impact of energy prices shock are different.Specifically,the decreases in coal and oil prices can promote the development of non-resource based industries,but have significantly negative influence on the overall level of industry development.Specifically,the effects of the energy price slump on industrial profit are much larger than that on output value.Second,the effects of each policy on different industries in Ordos' industrial economic system have certain differences.In terms of output value and profit for the whole industry,technological inovation(TI)and developing alternative industries(AI)have a significantly positive influence.However,these two policies have a certain lag time,and their effect on economic recovery and healthy development of Ordos will be revealed gradually over time.Reducing the value-added tax of coal enterprises(VAT)reveals results quickly and has excellent short-term effects.Moreover,the contribution of production limit(PL)to industrial profit is much stronger than in the area of industrial output value.Although the implementation of improving financial service(FS)can improve the industrial output value,it will weaken the industry profitability.Lastly,the policies of VAT,TI,PL,and AI have positive effects on the total industrial profit,while FS has negative effects.Moreover,In terms of increasing total industrial profit,the simultaneous implementation of PL,TI and AI can generate the synergy effect for each of them.And the simultaneous implementation of VAT and one or couple of other policies will generate the crowding-out effect both for VAT and other policies.This paper expands upon existing literature about the sustainable development of coal city and policy simulation,and reveals the mechanism of the impact of energy price shocks on the evolution of the economic system of the coal city and the regulatory role of the policies.It provides reference and basis for the policy making of the coal cities in China under the new economic normal conditions.