| Since China’s reform and opening up, the CPC Central Committee has issued successive series of No.1Central Document files to solve rural development problems, from2004onwards, No.1Central Document files focus rural finance areas, especially issues of the rural financial system reforms. However, China’s rural financial reforms did not improve the low allocation of agricultural credit, rural credit problems become the "bottleneck" while restricting the development of the rural economy:on the one hand, the natural inferiority of the agricultural poses high risk to agriculture credit, meanwhile the rural credit institutions carefully lend their funds from the view of their own funds’ security thus resulting credit rationing, on the other hand, based on the nature of profit-driven, capital continued to flow from the field of high-yield areas, regions or industries to the opposite. It’s necessary to study how to change this situation, to guide capital flows back to rural areas, improve the financial institutions’ funding support for rural economic development.2009No.l Central Document file proposed to explore the establishment of inter-linked agricultural credit and agricultural insurance as bank and insurance interactive mechanism, provides a new way to improve the availability of farmers credit, yet there’s not further theoretical research or empirical support sheds no lights its specific implementation procedures and effects, so the study of inter-linked agricultural credit and insurance can provide a scientific basis of steady progress in deepening the rural financial reform, thus has some theoretical and practical value.The overall objective of this study is to explore the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance how to improve the agricultural credit rationing, increase farmers’income. Around this overall objective, based on individual reputation signaling game theory, systemly builds the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance theory framework, combining the integrated use of household surveys in the field, econometric methods of Markov vector autoregression models, Bioprobit model,average treatment effect models, ordered Probit etc, provides qualitative and quantitative in-depth analysis of agricultural credit rationing types with agricultural credit allocation efficiency.Selecting sampling areas with similar natural disasters effects, as the economically developed areas like the GaoChun County of JiangSu Province, and economically less developed areas like YunMeng county of XiaoGan city and Sui county in HuBei province.Based on the581household survey data, we proceed the empirical test of the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance’s effectiveness on farmers’income.The full text is composed of seven parts, includes the following contents:(1) agricultural credit rationing types and its influence on credit allocation efficiency;(2) the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance’s impact on farmers’ credit behavior;(3) the empirical study of the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance’s impact on the famers’income and government subsidies programe.This thesis starts from the point of analysis of agricultural credit rationing types by employing time series data such as deposit rates in China1979-2009, agricultural credit, agricultural output as well as survey data from rural households, to reveal the agricultural credit rationing type time series and cross-section regimes’ characteristics. Togethe with agricultural allocative efficiency regimes’characteristics, the results show that:in the regime of stable economic, agricultural credit institutions have implemented a traditional credit rationing, price rationing; in the regime of economic growth, the increase in the supply of agricultural credit, mainly lead to farmers risk rationing; in the regime of economy recession, mainly composed of price rationing, quantity rationing and minimize risk rationing. Rationing types’cross-section feature is characterized by price rationing,and non-price rationing risk rationing, transaction cost rationing which are the component of non-price rationing. Agricultural credit allocative efficiency showed obvious characteristics of the regime changing features. in the regime of stable economic, the highest efficiency of credit allocation was achived, the overall efficiency of credit allocation is improved; in the regime of the stable economy,liberlized interest rates help to improve the allocation efficiency of agricultural credit, in the regimes of economic growth and recession, deposit interest rates need to be controled, it is necessary to introduce the inter-linked agriculture credit and insurance mechanism, decentralizing agricultural credit risk, reducing agricultural credit interest rates, improving credit rationing of farmers, at lat improving agricultural credit allocation efficiency. Then, answering to the question "how to guide farmers to actively participate in the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance, we analyze farmers’ social capital and risk preferences,and their impact to farmers’credit, insurance, and inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance behavior, and then based on experimental economics, design the benchmark group and the experimental group using the Ordered Probit Model,running empirical Test of factors which influence farmers involving in the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance. The results show that:after controling of the social capital effect, we found that the regional economic structuredifference plays an important role in farmers decision of joining the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance; risk preference variable plays a positive role in farmers credit migration decision-making, which means the realization of motivating farmers’ initiative and improve the participation rate, we need to guide farmers from Risk Aversion to Risk Preference while cultivating farmers entrepreneurship.On this basis, we constructed the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance’s collateral substitution and individual reputation signaling game analysis framework, Taken survey data of154farmers who have credit demand for example, inspecting the "agricultural credit+personal accident insurance+policy crop insurance+financial subsidy" model of the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance’s impact on farmers’ risk rationing. The results show that:as part of the collateral,the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance contractssignificantly improve farmers risk rationing through the reputation mechanism,, thus improve their credit availability.Based on the previous two study,answing questions as "whether farmers’participation in the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance would increase their income, and any influence upon government subsidies programe", this part of the thesis first employs the Match model under the average treatment effect model comparing farmers which have similar endowments such as age, region, land, agricultural production and investment, analysis income increasement of famers’partcipation in the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance, studying the two ways affecting the farmers’ income:First, the indirect effects of improving farmers credit rationing, second, the direct effects of motivating farmers to adopt new technologies; then study farmers’ income increasement affecting the Government’s agricultural insurance subsidies’ programe. The results show that:the inter-linked Agricultural Credit and Insurance improves the income of farmers significantly by17.21%, and increases farmers’ willingness to pay of agricultural insurance premium which reducing the pressure on government subsidies programe.Finally, based on the research finding, this paper gives policy recommendations such as accelerationg the agriculture insurance ledislation,improving catastrophic risk reserve mechanism, co-ordinate the design package of agricultural credit and agricultural insurance, promoting progress of farmers’s professional cooperatives and village credit construction program to improve its organizational reputation, and puts forward the further study of the content and method. |
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