Evaluation And Structural Optimization Of Low-Carbon Economy-Oriented Regional Land-use

Since the1980s, people gradually pay attention to the issue of global warming, so implementation the reduction of carbon emission and development of low-carbon economy to tackle climate change become a national consensus. According to relative research reports, land use is the second important reason for the increase of CO2in the atmosphere which only lower than the combustion of fossil fuels. In recent years, the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystem has carry out extensive and intensive research at home and abroad, and achieved fruitful results. However, land use is not only the direct cause for carbon emission and carbon absorb of regional ecosystem, but also as a space carrier influence the carbon emission levels of regional anthropogenic sources. But previous studies almost measure the effect of carbon emissions from land cover change and land-use, seldom integrate research the co-ordination of natural and anthropogenic sources of carbon emissions based on existing land use classification system. Although the low-carbon economy provide new development ideas for sustainable land use, the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the level of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use is little. Moreover, the research about the structure optimization of low-carbon economy-oriented land use to achieve the low-carbon and efficient regional land use need explored.Therefore, according to the related research about carbon emissions of land use at home and abroad, it integrated estimate the carbon emissions of natural and anthropogenic sources base on different land use types, and calculate the carbon emissions and carbon sinks as well as its emissions intensity and regional differences of land use in Wuhan City from1996-2010. Then analyze the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions of land use and economic development, and decomposite the influencing factors which including land use efficiency, land use structure, economic growth and population size. On this basis, it try to build evaluation index system of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use, Fuzzy-ANP method was used to evaluate the level of low-carbon land use in Wuhan City, and it also analysis the contribution rate, coordination degree, barriers, effectiveness and driving force of the evaluation results. Thus it integrated of land carbon emissions, the economic benefits and ecological benefits objective function of regional land use, and set high, medium and low carbon emission scenarios, the multi-objective linear programming method was proposed to optimizate land use structure of Wuhan City. Finally, it analysis the carbon emission reduction of land use and efficiency improvement potential, and put forward corresponding land use strategy and policy recommendations. The main contents are as follows: (1) Based on the relationship between low-carbon economy and land use, and the practical needs of carbon reduction of land-use, it proposed research issues, and reviewed the related study dynamic at home and abroad, which including the concept of carbon emissions of land use, the calculate of land carbon emission, land evaluation, land use structure optimization, carbon emission reduction measures of land use, and the research advances have been reviewed, it pointed out that regional land use study and practice, wich in accordance with the requirements of the low-carbon economy, need systems theory.(2) According to the needs of current theory and practice, it defines the low-carbon economy, carbon emissions of land use, land-use evaluation and optimization of land use structure. And analyze the theory of sustainable development, ecological economics, system science and merit-based allocation, that can make theoretical basis for this study. Finally, it puts forward systems analysis of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use, which including the need for land use study introduce the concept of low-carbon economy, the guiding role of the low-carbon economy for land use, and the connotation and system features of low-carbon economy-oriented land use.(3) It comprehensively calculated the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of land use in accordance with the different land use types in Wuhan City, and then got the net carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan City. Overall, the carbon emissions of land use increased year by year in Wuhan City, From19,064,500tons in1996to32,698,600tons in2010; the average annual growth rate is3.93%. The intensity of carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita increased year by year, but the carbon emissions per GDP decreased year by year, furthermore, the spatial and temporal differences of carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan megalopolis are obvious. From the perspective of the decoupling elastic analysis of carbon emissions of land use and economic development, it mainly appeared weak decoupling and strong decoupling, but there have been expansion access and expansion negative decoupling, now the growth rate of land use carbon emissions is lower than economic development in Wuhan City. According to the decomposition of impact factors of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan City and LMDI model, compared with the base year, the structural factors and efficiency factors of land use to some extent inhibited carbon emissions from land use in Wuhan City, The cumulative contribution rate of carbon emission reduction are1.50%and16.68%, respectively. While economic factors and demographic factors have a strong role in promoting land use carbon emissions, the cumulative contribution rate of the carbon increment were73.29%and21.53%, respectively.(4) According to the development requirements of low-carbon economy to land use, followed the general principles of guidance, regional, scientific and feasible, it build5criteria layer which including the level of land use input, land use intensity, land use output, land use efficiency, low carbon and sustainability of land use, the evaluation index system of regional land use contain24indicators factor layer, and using Fuzzy-ANP method to construct evaluation model and estimate. The paper obtained that comprehensive level of Land use in Wuhan City has an upward trend, but the level of development is still not high, has a large potential for improvement. Analyzed the contribution rate and the obstacles factors from the impact of the internal indicators of the land use level in Wuhan City, the level of land use input, land use intensity and land output efficiency have larger contribution, the low carbon level and sustainability of land use have larger obstacle. In addition to view the obstacles degree of factor, carbon emissions per area land, arable land per capita, environmental protection investment per area land have greater degree obstacles. From analysing the effectiveness of economic input-output of land use in Wuhan City, economic input-output of land use is effective in most years, but in very few years, it showed redundant of construction land and labor input and evenue shortage. Then divided the factors that affect the regional land use level into economic development, population growth and social progress, combine above factors to estimate driving force, we can found that economic development is the most critical factor to improve the urban land use level, while social progress is an important controlling factor for the urban land use level.(5) Through estimating the total carbon emissions of land use based on land-use planning in Wuhan City in2010, it has certain carbon emission reduction effect, compared with the current land use in2010, but the reduction effect is not obvious. Thus take low-carbon economy as target, integrate carbon emissions of regional land use, economic and eco-efficiency of land use objective function, according to the plans, economic development, food security and ecological protection requirements to establish constraints, set high, medium, and low carbon emission scenarios of land-use, and use LINGO software to solve it, at last select the carbon emissions plan for a satisfactory solution. The land-use structure adjusted based on the satisfactory result, compared with original plan, the total carbon emissions decrease1.18million tons, economic benefits decrease34.131billion Yuan, and ecological benefits increase286million Yuan, it basically meet the needs of the economic development, food and ecological protection of Wuhan City in2020.(6) The land use potential, carbon reduction effect, economic benefits, ecological benefits and corresponding countermeasures of land use, which contains arable land, forestland, orchard land, other agricultural land, construction land and unused land, that in accordance with the type classification of land use in Wuhan City, have been analyzed. The structure optimization of land use has greatest potential; the carbon emission reduction should also pay attention to the scale control of construction land, afforestation and management methods. Then the low-carbon land use measures have been put forward from perspective of carbon emission reduction, adding carbon sinks and improving efficiency of land use. Carbon emissions reduction of land use including agricultural and construction land use strategies, structural optimization and carbon emissions tax. Adding carbon sinks of land use including forestland and wetland use strategies, changes land use pattrerns and compensation of adding carbon sinks. The efficiency improvement of land use including intensive land use, improving the land use market, promoting land remediation and strengthening ecological protection.(7) It is conclusion and prospect. It summarizes the whole paper, points out the inadequacies of the existing research and prospects the future research directions.