| Along with the global climate and environment situation becoming more serious, as main elementof greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide emissions are concerned. With China regional carbon dioxideemissions trading market gradually constrution, the choice of carbon dioxide emissions allocationmethod and initial quotas confirmation, must be solved as important topic of research.Through literature research, we found that current research are related to the carbon dioxideemissions in a simple linear pattern, show lack of macroscopic production in systemic mechanism.Based on the technical efficiency measurement and production economics related theory as startingpoint of research, we perform carbon dioxide emissions allocation in the macro production functionframework, the main research conclusions and innovation point as the following several aspects:(1) taking carbon dioxide emissions as a macro undesirable output variables, using the environmentproduction technology, combined with ZSG-DEA method, we propose Zero Sum Gains （short namefor ZSG） environmental production technology allocation model, using DEA method formathematical programming, in order to maximize the overall technical efficiency as the goal,complete serial China provincial carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation model construction;after that, taking2010as an example, finish carbon dioxide emissions efficiency allocation;(2) through reasonable forecasting data during the China "twelfth five-year" period, we completethe provincial carbon intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation for "twelfth five-year" period,compare different mechanism between central government allocation and ZSG efficiency allocation,find that some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’sfinal carbon intensity constraints and predicted values of GDP in the end of "twelfth five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each type of area has different "low carbon" path;(3) based on historical data from2006to2010, we complete the "eleventh five-year " periodprovincial energy intensity constraint of ZSG efficiency allocation, compared with "20%" for thecentral government administrative allocation of energy saving aim and ZSG efficiency allocation, findthat some provinces show great difference in differnt mechanism; According to each province’s finalenergy intensity constraints and actual values of GDP in the end of "eleventh five-year", all30provinces regions are divided into4types regions, each area of the path of " energy saving " hasdifferent "low carbon" path;(4) combined with potential weight factor, we complete optimum allocation based on potential of energy saving and potential of emission reduction and potential of GDP growth, through multi-stageDEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aims allocation for“overall pareto optimality”; In view of potential weight factor influence on the different allocationresult, measure potential weight factor critical value, the critical value can be used to reflect choiceelastic between different policy. Empirical analysis shows that the different potential weight factorand critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results for east, middle and west regionsand30provinces; eastern and middle region should focus on the potential energy saving and emissionreduction potential results, western region should focus on GDP growth potential results, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas, it conforms to the present status ofindustrial structure adjustment and coastal region industrial migration.(5) based on EU’s carbon emissions allocation mechanism balances Equity Principle,Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, combined with potential weight factor, we completeoptimum allocation based on Equity Principle, Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, throughmulti-stage DEA programming to complete allocation mechanism, so as to realize multiple aimsallocation for “overall pareto optimality”; In view of Equity weight factor and Grandfathering Ruleweight factor influence on the different allocation result, measure weight factor critical value, thecritical value can be used to reflect choice elastic between different policy. Empirical analysis showsthat the different weight factor and critical value will cause greater influence of allocation results foreast, middle and west regions and30provinces; eastern region should focus on Efficiency and Equityresults, middle and western region should focus on Grandfathering Rule and Value Principle, so eachregion would obtain more carbon dioxide emissions quotas. |
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