Research On Eexpansion Of Urban Construction Land And Carbon Emissions

Cities are the concentrated expression of the human civilization. Resources consumed in cities occupyan important share of the society. To achieve a sustainable development is of great significance to human.Sustainable development of urban land occupies an important part of sustainable urban development.However, research in recent years are mostly missing in the actual planning and implementation conceptand still remaining at the conceptual level. Urban planning contributes to the implementation of sustainabledevelopment strategy in urban land use. Some research methods prompted planners to forecast the trend ofurban development, which help planners select the optimal planning and has an important significance inguiding urban planning. Expansion of urban construction land will affect all levels of sustainable urbandevelopment, to master good urban land use change in space law, the drive mechanism and futuredevelopments and other issues will be the primary key research areas of sustainable urban management andurban ecological security. as the economic center of Henan province, the construction land changes rapidlyin Zhengzhou. Therefore, it is significant to simulate the development trend and forecast its carbonemissions for the sustainable development of Zhengzhou. This paper constructs a model to simulate thetrend of construction land expansion and forecast the carbon emission process in Zhengzhou.Multi-Agent is combined with cellular automata, restricted environmental module and random moduleof land use change to constructs the urban construction land expansion （Expansion of Urban ConstructionLand Model Based on MAS and CA,MCUC）model based on the data of land use in1995-2009years.MCUC model is used to study the law of urban construction land expansion and its carbon emissions. Theanalysis results of land use data in1995-2009years show that the construction land expands fast in the last14years and the direction of expansion is the East and south of Zhengzhou.MCUC model uses logisticregression analysis to determine the relationship between the urban construction land expansion anddistance to the highway, railway, city center, town center for each cell. Through interaction between theresults and the government Agent, restricted environmental module, random module, we can obtainprobability formula of construction land expansion. The paper simulates and predicts the construction landexpansion in urban area of Zhengzhou based on the probability formula. Moreover, carbon emissions of urban construction land expansion are accounted and predicted based on MCUC model and GM model,which reveals the trend of the carbon emissions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)ERDAS IMAGINE8.6and ArcGIS is used to do remote sensing image processing andinterpretation with a TM data. On this basis,, the change of land use in1995,2002and2009is obtained.Moreover,this paper integrated multi-Agent, cellular automata and GIS technology to build urbanconstruction land expansion mode. Zhengzhou city is used as the study area to MCUC model for empiricalanalysis. Put ting the data of different periods of Variation of land use, spatial variable, neighborhooddevelopment rate, planning data, the topography, rivers, beaches and so on to preprocessing in Zhengzhoucity, then importing those data into CA module，MAS module and Environmental Restrictions module ofMCUC model and Combining with random grid of random factor module, we Can get the probability ofthe evolution of the construction land expansion mode of Zhengzhou city. And this paper uses a series ofdata in2002and2009to verify the rationality of the model.(2)Putting the data of2009into MCUC model, we can obtain regularity of construction landexpansion in2016. Results show that the construction land of Non-restricted area in Zhengzhou city isgoing to high-speed extend, and the zhengdong new district’s extension speed is highest; Extension mode isthe same as the direction of urban planning. They present to advance to the eastern part of the trend, andthose trends consistent with the overall planning of Zhengzhou-kaifeng integration and the presentsituation.(3)MCUC model is used to account and forecast the carbon emissions based on the change ofland-use generated by construction land expansion in Zhengzhou city. Research shows urban constructionland expansion of Zhengzhou mainly relies on the occupation of farmland and woodland. Compare the twoperiods from1995to2002and from2002to2009, we can find the carbon emissions based on land-usechange is gradually reduced migration over time, and renders the feature of area occupied by woodlandreduced and area occupied by cultivated land increased. Compared to the predicted value and the twoperiods, it also showed a downward trend that shows carbon emissions based on land using changegenerated by construction land expansion emerged decreasing trend as a whole.(4)Carbon emissions based on energy consumption of construction land expansion of Zhengzhou city is firstly up and then decreased trend between2005to2011. The peak period of increase is from2009to2010, Carbon emissions of the falled area are higner than other years of carbon emissions except the peekperiod. Using the gray prediction model to predicte the carbon emissions based on energy consumption ofZhengzhou city, it shows that Carbon emissions generated by energy consumption is growing year by year,and the growth rate continues to expand.