| Urban construction land expanding is the inevitable trend of urban space expansion and an essential process of urban space growth and urban development.With the accelerating process of urban space expansion and the increasing occupation of agricultural land by urban construction land occupation,some local governments would violate the rules of urban construction land expanding when formulating urban planning,carry out urban construction in the mode of “making pancakes”,which has resulted in a huge waste of land resources,as well as a series of problems such as energy consumption and more greenhouse gas emission.Under the background of information age,how to explore the spatial expansion of urban construction land by using spatial data model is of great significance for effectively solving population,resources,environment and development issues.Based on the research background and research significance,the article has concluded the domestic and overseas research status of urban construction land expansion,and systematically analyzed the achievements of researches on current urban construction land use about the spatial expansion characteristics,modes,influencing factors,and dynamic mechanisms,summarized the methods for urban expansion simulation.Based on referring to the achievements of previous studies,this article has used CA-ABM model to study the spatial expansion of urban construction land,and proposed the research content,method and technical route.Based on relevant theoretical explanations of cellular automata and multi-agent,the article has analyzed by combining both and discussed the feasibility of establishing a space expansion simulation model for CAABM construction land.The model mainly includes five parts: cellular automata,environment layer,multi-agent layer,constrained layer,cellular automata and multi-agent.Python language was selected as the platform for model building,and the realization approach of various components of the model on the Python platform was discussed.The article also conducted empirical study by taking the central area of Guiping City,Guangxi Province as an example,main process stated as follows:(1)four phases of construction land in the central area of Guiping City in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were selected to analyze and summarize the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of construction land in the central area of Guiping City;(2)With logistic regression as the transformational rule of cellular automaton layer(CA)together through multi-agent(ABM),combined with the natural,transportation,economic,social and other related elements of the research area,the programming environment was built with the Python language to realize the CA-ABM construction land expansion simulation model;(3)The model test is based on the 2010 construction land in the central area of Guiping City.The original cellular automaton(CA)expansion model and the CA-ABM expansion model were used to simulate 2017 construction land in the central area of Guiping City.Comparison between simulation results with the actual land use situation in 2017 showed that the simulation accuracy of the CA ABM construction land expansion model was 83.37%,and the kappa coefficient was 0.91.The simulation results were close to the actual land conditions in terms of form and quantity:(4)CAABM construction land expansion model was used to simulate the expansion of 2030 construction land in the central area of Guiping City.The construction land area was expanded from 50.25 square kilometers in 2017 to 63.12 square kilometers in 2030,with an average annual increase of 099 square kilometers.The simulation results can provide a basis for future urban planning for Guiping City. |
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