Study On The Forcasting, Operation And Energy Efficiency Evaluation Method For Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities

Electric vehicles have been thought to be effective to reduce carbon emissions, optimaize the usage of energy, and many cooutries around the world focus on the development of the electric vehicles. The planning of charing facilities, grid coordinated operation and investment efficiency assessment is the foundation to promote the electric vehicle industry, which are investigated in the paper. And the detailed works of the paper are as follows:(1) For the lack of car ownership forecasting methods currently, prediction model of electric car ownership based on genetic BP neural network is proposed. The model takes into account the impact of the GDP, history automobile ownership, automobile production, passenger volume, crude steel per capita, power generation per capita, population and road mileage on car ownership. Through the calculation of historical data, the model presented by the paper is accuracy, and predictive analysis about electric car ownership of one domestic city is made based on the model, then charging facilities needs of this city is analyzed.(2) Considering time-of-use power price strategies, forecast analysis about charging load of charging car is conductred. Because there is no statistics data for the electric vehicle charging load, the sub-normal distribution and the sub-chi-square distribution are used to forecast charging load. The impact of time-variable price is considered in the prediction model of the paper, and the impact rule of the charging speed on charging load is studied.(3) The successful operation of the domestic and international electric vehicle charging facilities, domestic gas stations and mobile operator is also discussed, then the using of its successful model on the charging facility operation is analyzed. Thus the operational mode of the electric vehicle charging facilities, the building mode of electric vehicle charging network, operation and management mode of charging service facilities are presented and charging fee management system is designed.(4) Based on the Delphi method, energy efficiency evaluation model of the charging stations is established. The system consists of three layers:target layer; criteria layer; indicator layer. By expert surveys and questionnaires, the weights of the indicators and criteria are determined. The weights of each indicator on the criteria and target are calculated and analyzed based on fuzzy evaluation method. Ultimately energy efficiency of one charging station is assessed as an example.