| The increasing problems of resources and environment calls for green,low carbon and environmental protection.The city fuel automobiles are in passive attenuation or eliminated trend.At the same time,with the continuous decrease of manufacturing cost of environmental friendly electric vehicle and the breakthrough of battery technology,the rapid development of electric vehicles is promoted along with the establishment of the global energy internet and the need of a"conservation-oriented society".It depends largely on the degree of the charging facility improvement,which requires the base charging facilities construction speed should also keep up with the development speed of electric vehicles.Therefore,how to effectively planning the base charging facilities and then promote the development of them is undoubtedly a worthy problem of in-depth study.The construction of urban public charging service network is a huge system project,needing to consider the urban planning,land resources,construction conditions,power supply,investment channels,modes of operation and many other factors.In order to meet the growing urban electric vehicle planning,this paper has carried out research on the planning method of urban electric vehicle charging facilities,focusing on the construction scale and overall layout of them.The main research work is as follows:(1)Facing the development of urban electric vehicles,the demand forecast method of electric vehicle charging facilities based on the concept of market coefficient is put forward.Based on the classification of the main charging/battery swap infrastructure,the elastic coefficient method and the car ownership measurement method of a thousand people as well as Delphi method are used together to forecast the vehicle ownership,and then the electric vehicle ownership is predicted by Box-Cox Dogit model based on the concept of market coefficient.Our research targets the service characteristic of the charging facilities and bases on the theory model of the random service system.We predict the demand for charging/battery swap infrastructure by analyzing their utilization and service capability.(2)Based on the forecasting and analysis of the demand for charging facilities of electric vehicles,the layout planning method of electric vehicle charging facilities Bat Algorithm based is carried out.Combined with the urban economic and social development and electric vehicle ownership forecast results,we forecast the construction scale and the demand amount of charging/battery swap infrastructure during the planning period.This paper targets the operation of the electric vehicle charging/battery swap infrastructure and takes full account of the factors such as policy support,capital investment,technical support and so on,basing on the analysis of the charging facility basic principles such as social and technical principles.The Bat Algorithm based charging facility layout planning model is built,and then the charging facility layout planning system is realized.(3)Based on the proposed forecasting and planning method for electric vehicles charging facilities,taking Weifang City of Shandong Province as an example,the case study of urban electric vehicle charging facilities planning is carried out.First of all,we analyze the development of electric vehicle charging facilities and related policies.Then based on the R&D planning system,we analyze the Weifang City "thirteen five" electric vehicle charging facility planning and predict the number of the electric vehicle ownership.We forecast the charging facilities demand from the overall goal,sub-regional goals,sub-site goals,key goals and other dimensions.Besides,we analyze from the charging station integrated layout planning,large-scale charging station integrated layout planning and medium-sized charging station integrated layout planning.Finally we give all kinds of charging facility investment estimates and benefit analysis,and propose protection mechanism to the implementation of the development plan. |
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