Research On The Risk Assessment And Decision Method Of The Cable Digital Television Project

CADTV (Cable Digital Television) project’s success depends not only on thetechnologically advanced or not, a strong financial background or not, more dependingon how the management level, especially for project risk management. How toeffectively identify CADTV projects, how to manage CADTV project risk assessmentand effective control CADTV Project risk are a prerequisite for the effectiveimplementation of the CADTV project. On the basis of analysing the CADTV projectrisk management needs of Hunan province, this paper summarizes the status of projectrisk management, and systematic, in-depth study the basic problem of the CADTVproject risk management, the basic framework of CADTV project risk management ispresented. The key risk identification, risk assessment, countermeasure analysis andrisk-sharing are depth researched. The main research content and innovative results areas follows:(1) On the basis of the existing research of risk management, the composing ofCADTV project is studied. The characteristics, objectives and basic principles ofCADTV are studied. Then CADTV project risk management is analyzed. Theconceptual basis for research of CADTV project risk management needs is provided.(2) The basic framework of CADTV project risk management is established, allrisk management activities will be divided into three large groups: risk identification,risk assessment and response analysis, risk-sharing in the framework. The frameworkprovides a practical guide to operational for CADTV project risk management.(3) Sets out to identify the concept of project risk, present the project risk of thethree-dimensional characterization of the structure, then the process of identificationkey risk factors of CADTV projects is designed. Based on the related study of CADTVand the author’s experience of the practice of CADTV projects, potential risk factors ofCADTV project are assumed, and use it as the content to design the question of thequestionnaire. The risk of CADTV project is classified and identified. The hierarchicalmodel of CADTV project risk is build. And through a questionnaire survey andstatistical analysis, the risk factors for CADTV project are quantitative empiricalanalysis. The9Items of the key risk factors and25key variables of the risk and5riskconsequences are presented.(4) The risk assessment framework of CADTV project is established. Theframework includes: the verification method of indicators system based on statisticalanalysis, the model of determining the right to cross-index system based on theMACBETH method, the calculation model of CADTV project risk based on the FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation method. The problem of CADTV item risk assessment issolved, so that CADTV project risk management is more targeted and effective. (5) Based on the risk assessment results and the calculation of risk-sharing. Fivemain risk sources and risk-sharing and the distribution of benefits, the business model,technology, information content are analyzed detailedly.