Robust Analysis Of The Decisions Of Supply-chain Operations In New Products Launching Stage

Innovation is an eternal theme for enterprise development, and successful launch ofnew products, new services and new solution is the core requirement of enterprisedevelopment. Launching stage is crucial for new products successfully entering into themarket, which is a typical multiple departments work chain, requiring the supply chainnodes participation and cooperation. However, the lack of new products’ demandinformation makes supply chain operation challenged and risky, and leads to thedecision-maker show robust behavior. Based on this, this article researches the operationdecisions of new products launch stage by considering the robust decision-makingbehavior. In this paper, we describe new product demand information missing features, toreveal the impact of robust decision-making behavior on new products operatingdecisions, and then design cooperation incentive mechanism and managementinterventions tightly around the important decisions in new product introducing phase, topromote new product successful launch. This paper mainly talks about followingquestions:First，according to distribution free robust method and game theory, we establish thebasis new product supply chain, which is the foundation of this paper. By comparion withthe traditional supply chain which completely knows demand distribution, we reveal thatrobust game with limited information is more efficiency and valuable for retailer andwhole supply chain. Furether, combing with previous empirical findings, we proposesome ways to improve the rate of successfully launching new product, such as:strengthening the incentives for retailers, strengthening the information retrieval,strengthening the cooperation of marketing and operations, which will be used to solvethe following problems in new product launching stage.Second，the realistic problem hat dealers would not like to shop a lot of goodsbecause of the larger sales risk, makes it difficult to build up new product sales channels.We design “VMI+sales rebate+consignment” contract based on current new productlaunch operating mode, to study the supply chain for both of manufacture and retailerhave robust behavior when facing the information missing. Through robust game analysis,it found that the contract can reducing the risk of retailers, and improve retailersperformance, and then incentive retailers quickly and efficiently build new product saleschannels, to support the new product into the market, furthermore, this supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.Third, the uncertainty of the new product diffusion makes distribution decision risky.In this article, we describe the demand more exactly with multiple demand forecastings,and establish the distribution decision model. By use of CVaR to measure the distributionrisk and worst-case robust optimization method, we discuss the model under twoscenarios including completely unknown and partial known the the probability of eachforecasting. The simulations show the difference between our method and the methodonly one forcasting. When comparing with average strategy, the performance of ourmehod is conservative, and takes advantage in dealing with the small probability event,further, we find the effectiveness and robustness of our WCVaR.At last, under the prospect of “coordination marketing and operation”, we studythe new product pricing and inventory decision with robust behavior when facing thedemand information missing. By optimizing method, we get the optimal price and stockquantity and the upper and lower bounds of expected profit. The result shows that jointdecision can make the operations and marketing adjustment and cooperation with eachother, and make the new product supply chain more stable, and effectively dealing theuncertainty in launching process.Based on the value of joint decision, combing with a lot of empirical studies aboutconsumer behavior in marketing, we add the consumer price psychology into robustpricing and inventory decision problem for new product, propose the price demandfunction with price-quality effect and reference price effect, and analyze the consumerprice psychological characteristics for new products with different degree innovation.According the result, we put forward the suitable marketing strategy for differentinnovation degree new products, which just confirms the result of empirical studies;moreover, we find the importance of consumer reference price.Along with the demand characteristics, risk resources and decision behavior of newproduct supply chain operations be further recognized, the uncertain theory be furtherimproved, the new product launch problems will get more enough concern and research.