Energy Intensity Change Of Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Industry In China

Transportation equipment manufacturing industry plays an outstanding role in theprocess of industrialization of a country or region. It is an important basic industry of nationaleconomy development. Since China’s reform and opening up, China’s transportationequipment manufacturing industry has already made considerable progress. But comparedwith developed countries, many problems still exist. For example, high energy consumptionaffects the sustainable development of the industry increasingly. Under current backgroundthat energy shortage and environmental pollution has become the main contradiction ofrestricting China’s economic and social sustainable development, to study the influencefactors, mechanism, effect and future tendency of energy intensity change of China’stransportation equipment manufacturing industry is very important.On the basis of the consumption object and supply source of energy, energy intensity isdivided into direct energy intensity and complete energy intensity. According to train ofthought of status quo study, mechanism study, optimization study and countermeasure study,this dissertation uses the wave theory, the wuli-shili-renli system methodology, vectorautoregressive model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, structuraldecomposition analysis, DEA and Malmquist index method, nonlinear optimization modeland so on to study energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry. Main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1) It uses wuli-shili-renli system methodology to analyze influence factors of directenergy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry.According to the methodology connotation, wuli factors mainly include design, constructionand management technology; shili factors mainly include industry structure, energyconsumption structure, investment structure and import and export structure, etc.; renli factorsmainly include energy saving consciousness, energy policy, macro-economy and energysaving measures. Through the study, we can find that to lower direct energy intensity throughtechnical factors is most obvious; there is an obvious positive correlation between proportionof automobile manufacturing industry and direct energy intensity from1980to1995, butcertain hysteresis exists. Fluctuation relation of them from1996to2010is not obvious; descending proportion of coal consumption and rising proportion of other energy sources arehelpful to decrease direct energy intensity; Generally speaking, there is an inverse relationshipbetween foreign direct investment of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry and direct energy intensity change; MCI and BDI are helpful to decrease directenergy intensity and effect of MCI is bigger.(2) It uses vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variancedecomposition to study multi-factor dynamic shock response of direct energy intensity change.Results show that:①influence periods of proportion of automobile manufacturing industry,automobile manufacturing direct energy intensity, foreign direct investment, fixed-assetinvestment, proportion of coal consumption to direct energy consumption intensity of China’stransportation equipment manufacturing industry are longer, the influence lags are4years,10years,10years,8years,8years respectively. Influence lag of energy price to direct energyintensity is3years, which is shorter.②the importance sequence of influence factors for directenergy intensity of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry is: direct energyintensity itself>proportion of automobile manufacturing industry>foreign direct investment>structure of energy consumption> technical progress> fixed-asset investment>energy price.(3) Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method is used to study deep motivation ofcomplete energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry.Results show that: From the factor perspective of complete energy intensity change, the firstfactor to decrease complete energy intensity is technology (including energy technology andmanufacturing technology), the second factor is the added value. The factor to raise completeenergy intensity is the final demand. From short term, export raises complete energy intensity,but energy technology and import change can decrease complete energy intensity in most ofintervals; manufacturing technology change decreases complete energy intensity in1997-2002,2002-2007and2005-2007. It raises complete energy intensity in the rest ofintervals; Final consumption change raises complete energy intensity in1995-1997,2002-2007,2005-2007and decreases complete energy consumption intensity in1997-2002,2002-2005; In addition to1997-2002, investment effect on complete energy intensity isopposite to consumption effect on complete energy intensity. From7-10years period, addedvalue, energy technology, manufacturing technology, investment decrease complete energyintensity. But exports and other factors raise complete energy intensity; Influence laws of consumption and import are less obvious, but their impact directions are reversed.(4) Through nonlinear optimization model of complete energy intensity, the dissertationanalyzes complete energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry after optimization. Research shows that: With all kinds of structure adjustment,complete energy intensity is also changing. When the added value of China’s transportationequipment manufacturing industry reaches3.451961trillion yuan, the proportions ofautomobile manufacturing, ship manufacturing and other transportation equipmentmanufacturing industry are58.97%,17.01%,24.02%. And when coefficients of consumption,investment, export and import are0.0598,0.3024,0.064,0.0648, complete energy intensitycan reaches0.9307tce/ten thousand yuan, which can achieve the goal of decreasing completeenergy intensity by20%in2015.