Study On The Evolvement Mechanism And Scenario Simulation Of Energy Intensity In China

The restricted indicator that reducing energy consumption per unit GDP by 20% in 2010 compared with 2005 was written into China's"Eleventh Five-year Plan". Resource conservation, as an important measure to change economic growth mode, has been raised to strategic position of basic national policy. So in the background that the contradiction among energy, environment and economy becomes outstanding increasingly and this condition will last for a long time, studying the influencing factors, influencing effect and change trend of China's energy intensity is very necessary.In this paper specific research idea is followed, viz. present condition research, influencing mechanism research, simulation research and policy design. In this paper, China's energy intensity evolution is divided into three reverse"U"stages, the periodic and overall characteristics are analysed, and some important factors influencing energy intensity are found. By using single-factor static analysis and multi-factors dynamic analysis the influencing mechnasim of the factors to China's energy intensity evolution was studied. For further exploring its impetus the effect of technical advancement and final demand structrue on energy intensity shift was studied by using structural decomposition analysis method. The research results in chapter 3 and chapter 4 revealed that technical advancement was the dominant factor to decrease China's energy intensity. But technical advancement was replaced with energy-economy indictor (such as sectoral energy intensity) and technology-economy indicator (such as direct consumption coefficient) in the two chapters, the essence of technical advancement was not reflected. Based on the above considersation, the following chapter, chapter 5, divided technical advancement into technology index and technology efficiency index and analyzed their relation between technical advancement and energy intensity evolution using panal data model. After some necessary analysis finished, the future development trend of China's energy intensity was simulated making use of non-linear optimization model. In the end, this paper put forward some suggessions of energy conservation.The innovation of this paper is embodied in three aspects, namely, (1) dynamic impulse response of energy intensity evolution to multi-factors, (2) structural decomposition analysis (abbreviated SDA) on China's energy intensity evolution, (3) non-linear optimization simulation of energy intensity change. There are some quantitative analysis methods such as index decomposition analysis, structural decomposition analysis (abbreviated SDA), vector autoregression model (abbreviated VAR), impulse response function (abbreviated IRF), panal data model and Genetic Algorithm, etc..