| Water is origin of life, soil is root of the survival. Water and soil resources, the most basic material conditions for human’s survival and develop are the most active factor and influence widely in ecological environment system, and are also finite limited natural resources. As an important reserve land resource area in Shandong Province, Yellow River delta is one of important areas for the total dynamic balance of cultivated land and increasing cultivated area. However, the shortage of water resources in this area is an increasingly serious problem. In recent years, large amount of oil extraction, large-scale development of oil field, the reduced flow of Yellow River and the blind industry and agriculture development have had the very tremendous influence to local soil and water resources and environment such as water pollution, the high degree of soil salinization, the serious soil pollution, the degradation of the wetland function, the decreasing biodiversity, etc.Focusing on the subject "Water-soil resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation" and based on the principle of sustainable development theory, this dissertation aimed at the substantial and efficient utilization of resources and sustainable economic and social development, and the basic theory and methods were investigated and discussed. By virtue of Yellow River Delta, we chose Dongying as research region and analyzed the dynamic changing regularity of water-soil resources in Yellow River Delta using statistics and TM images as information sources. We constructed the matching degree measure model of regional water-land resources and calculated the matching coefficient of resources in Yellow River Delta and dividing matching degree. Then, we selected30indicators from four aspects including water resources system, soil resources system, socioeconomic system and ecological environment system to establish an index system of water and soil resources carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta. And then, We utilizing the pursuit evaluation model based on particle swarm optimization(PSO-PPE) to comprehensively evaluate the water and soil resources carrying capacity and to analyze the regional difference. Finally, based on the analysis of the affecting factors of carrying capacity, we putting forward countermeasures for sustainable utilization of water and soil resources.The main contents and conclusions are as follow:(1) The conclusion of the theory and method system for water-soil resources carrying capacity research at home and abroad With referencing to a large number of domestic and international papers in the field, we determined the definition of water resources carrying capacity and soil resources carrying capacity. Then, we analyzed the intension of water-soil resources carrying capacity, and then discussed the features and influence factors of the carrying capacity. Meanwhile we detailed the overview of sustainable use, the definition and intension of sustainable development, the formation of sustainable development view and the relationship between sustainable use and water-soil resources carrying capacity.(2) The clarifying of space-time variation of water-soil resources in Yellow River DeltaBased on the survey of water resources and water environment in Yellow River Delta, we applied effective recognition method and chose three main indicators including precipitation, potential evaporation, runoff to analyze qualitatively the evolution characters of spatial and temporal multiple scale hydrological factors in Dongying and its district and county in recent50years. Based on remote sensing data of soil resources,3S technology and TM image information sources, we employed transfer matrix method and landscape index to study the change of land mass and landscape pattern in1992-2010, and based on that, space-time variations of land use types in Yellow River Delta were analyzed.(3) The analysis of space matching pattern of water-soil resources in Yellow River DeltaWith the analysis of water-soil resource structure and its utilization in Yellow River Delta, we draw an conclusion that soil resource is rich and water resource is scarce. From the one aspect of water-soil resource total quantity, the cultivated area covers2.94%of total cultivated area in Shandong province and water resources orily covers2.03%. From the other aspect of the average level, per capita cultivated land is0.119hm2/person which is near the per capita in Shandong province. But per capita water resource is333m3/person which is less than one-sixth of the national average, and per area water resource is777m3/hm2which is less than one-third of the national average and is40.29%of the Shandong average. On that basis, in view of matching between water resource and cultivated area, we built the regional water and soil resource matching measure model and calculated water-soil resource matching coefficient in Yellow River Delta and describe quantitatively the spatial matching degree of water and soil resource. The results show that the water-soil resource matching coefficient in Yellow River Delta is0.19×104m3/hm2which is far higher than the national average. There are greater regional difference among two counties and three districts in our research, of those, Lijin County is0.07×104m3/hm2which is the lowest one and Guangrao County is0.42×104m3/hm2which is the highest. (4) The construction of an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Yellow River DeltaFirst, based on the water-soil resources carrying capacity research at home and abroad, we combined with the actual situation of Yellow River Delta and proposed the basic principle for choosing evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity in this area. Then, from the viewpoint of the theory of system, i.e. regarding social and economic development, ecology and environment, water and soil resources as a complex system, we chose thirty index to establish the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta. Finally, according to the degree to which evaluation index affect carrying capacity, we determined classification standards of indicators including five levels such as highest, higher, middle, lower and lowest and classified as five levels in the view of water resource carrying capacity and the pressure that social and economic development throws at water resource.(5) The comprehensive evaluation of water and soil resource carrying capacity in Yellow River Delta.We made a comprehensive evaluation for water and soil resource carrying capacity and analyzed regional differences in Yellow River Delta utilizing PSO-PPE. Then we got the comprehensive evaluation rank of the study area and its each part. The results in2010show that the water resources carrying capacity of Dongying district and Kenli County is medium and level III which the development of water resources and social economy is in coordination state, Hekou district, Lijin County and Guangrao County is lower and level IV.(6) The countermeasure put forward of water and soil resources sustainable utilization in Yellow River Delta.With the introduction of indicators contribution, indicators deviation and obstacle degree, We realized the obstacle diagnosis of water and soil resources comprehensive carrying capacity and found out the limited factors which restrict social and economic development including water resources development and utilization, unused land ratio, total output per cubic meter water and per capita GDP. According to the diagnostic results, we started with many factors including resource, structural, economic, technical, manageable, etc. Then, we built the measure system and control model for improving the water and soil resources carrying capacity both at the macro-level and at the micro-level. It can provide guidance for effective utilization of water and soil resources, provide matching decision evidences for governments, make the effective utilization of water and soil resources produce overall bigger benefits, meet the need of the sustainable development of economy and society. |
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