The Theoretical And Positive Analysis On The Employment Effect Of Low Carbon Economic Policy

Low carbon economic policies have potential micro and macro economic impact on enterprises, consumers, jobs and GDP. Will the low carbon economic policies influence the employment growth pattern and the employment structure optimization? This issue is deserved to make a thorough inquiry.For finding the general rule of the employment effect of low carbon economic policy, this paper decomposes the path and results that low carbon economic policies affect the amount and structure of employment by mathematic method. This paper also aims to find the special rule of the employment effect of low carbon economic policy in China by empirical test, and provide feasible suggestion for promoting employment through the implementation of low carbon economic policies.Main contents and contributions are as follows:Firstly, this paper uses a collection of low carbon economy theory, labor economic theory, industrial economic theory and other related theories. This paper analyzes the mechanism that low carbon economic policies influence labor supply, labor demand and employment structure from micro, meso and macro perspectives. From the micro perspective, the labor demand effect of restrictive low carbon economy policies and incentive low carbon economy policies are decomposed into substitution effect and cost effect. Labor flow-on effect and human capital effect are also analyzed from the micro perspective. Price effect and consumption demand effect are analyzed respectively from the meso and macro perspectives.Secondly, this paper puts forward the concept of CO2structure deviation. According to the size of the CO2structure deviation in different areas and industries, the employment effects of different low carbon economic policy instruments are evaluated by empirical test.Thirdly, econometric analysis shows that different low carbon economic policy instruments have different effects on employment. Raising energy prices or increasing pollution control investment will reduce employment. Increasing pollution control investment is unfavorable for optimizing the employment structure, but raising energy prices will not adversely affect the optimization of employment structure. Improving new energy consumption ratio will promote the secondary and tertiary industries employment growth and promote the employment structure optimization. Overall, China’s efforts to restrain the energy consumption can produce negative effects on employment and employment structure, however, reducing carbon dioxide emissions intensity is helpful for promoting employment growth and employment structure optimization.Based on the conclusion from empirical analysis and the low carbon employment policy experiences from Britain and the United States, this paper suggests to construct a government leading and dual goal oriented low carbon employment policy framework.