Comparative Study And Effect Of Low-carbon Policy In China's Industry

With the emergence of greenhouse effect and other environmental problems,climate issues have become a global concern.China has been very active in coping with the climate change issue.Chinese government committed to reducing its carbon intensity by 40%-45%in 2020 and further by 60%-65%in 2030 compared with that in 2005 levels,and striving to achieve peak carbon emissions in 2030.To promote emission reduction,low-carbon policies based on market mechanisms have been put on the agenda,such as carbon tax and carbon trading.Meanwhile,as the sector with the largest carbon emission in China,the industrial sectors inevitably become the primary target of China's low carbon policy.Therefore,it is an important task to study the impact of low-carbon policy implementation on the industrial sector and the difference between the effects of different low-carbon policies.A low-carbon policy dynamic CGE model was developed in this study to explore the output effect and emission reduction effect in China's industry.According to the tax rate,this paper designed carbon tax policy scenarios with tax rate of 10-100yuan/t CO₂,and the carbon tax policy effect of industrial industry was studied.Then 6carbon emission trading policy scenarios were designed based on quota allocation and the output effect and emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policy effect on industrial sectors were analyzed.Furthermore,this study estimated the effect differences between carbon tax and carbon emission trading on the output and emission reduction of the industrial sectors.Finally,this study put forward suggestions for the industry to cope with the low carbon policy.The study shows that when the carbon tax rises from 10 yuan/ton CO₂ to 100yuan/ton CO₂,the output effect and emission reduction effect increase with the increase of tax rate.Carbon tax induces an output shrinkage in energy or high-energy-consuming industries.And the output decline would be greater with a higher tax rate.The energy or high-energy-consuming industries experiences the largest decrease in CO₂ emission.In the long term,the output effect and reduction effect would be greater with time going by.Under the carbon emission trading policy,the most serious output declines take place in the covered industries of ETS.While the uncovered industries also experience output loss through the input-output relations among the upstream and downstream industries.In terms of carbon reductions effects,the simulations show that carbon market induces significant emission reductions in both the covered and uncovered industries of ETS,especially in energy-intensive and carbon-intensive ones.Then the output effect and emission reduction effect of each industry between carbon trading policy and carbon tax policy are compared in the same reduction target.From the perspective of the industry output effect,the output effect of carbon trading is larger.The impact of carbon tax on economy is shown mainly in the fossil energy sectors,while the main influenced sectors of carbon trading policy is mechanism coverage industry.The variation coefficient of output effect in the carbon tax policy is larger,so the carbon tax policy may lead to drastic adjustment of China's industrial structure.In terms of emission reduction effect,the abatement effect of carbon trading policy is more significant.Under the carbon tax policy,the fossil energy industries declined most significantly.The carbon trading policy induces a more significant reduction in mechanism-covered industries.The coefficient of variation of emission reduction effect of carbon tax policy is obviously smaller than that of carbon trading policy,so carbon tax will help to promote the smooth adjustment of energy structure.