Study On China’s Rape Industry Security

It indicates that agriculture became one of the most-effected industries in our country since the accession to the WTO, so the state has stepped up efforts to protect agricultural support, and put the food security as a national strategic priority of security. Although the self sufficiency of grain has been a basic protection, the potential security hazard of the edible vegetable oil has quietly come, especially the soybean industry shrink gradually under the impact of foreign transgenic soybean. There are64enterprises that have foreign background of foreign capital in97large soybean processing enterprises of China. These enterprises represent66%of the total stock and their actual processing capacity has accounted for the domestic total actual processing capacity of85%. Four large grain dealers ABCD and Wilmar International have controlled80%of China’s soybean import source. These foreign companies even attempt to control the processing of protein raw materials such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and inroad into China’s feed industry. The soybean crisis attracts the wide interests on oil industry, oil security. Soybean "undefended" tragedy also led scholars to worry whether soy tragedy will repeat itself on other oil. Now, as the largest oil crops other than the soybean, the industry security of the oilseed rape has placed in the forefront of fuel oil industry security problems.Based on the background of above reality, the development process of rapeseed industry in China and the evolution process of rapeseed industry in each province were reviewed since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and the generating process of rapeseed industry security issues and the security situation currently facing were summarized. By constructing the index system, the rapeseed industry security in China and every province in China were estimated, and the rapeseed industry security for the next eight years was also predicted. As for the strongest challenges currently facing for our rapeseed industry security is the large quantities import of rapeseed products, combined with soy occupied the painful lessons and easily lead to a lack of pricing right by large number of imported products, so in this paper, four-step evaluation method is applied to determine whether the country’s rapeseed industry pricing right is missing. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the current unsafe state of rapeseed industry, it is unrealistic to rely on industry self-development to improve industry security, and at this time the governmental policy support is the important guarantee for the security of rapeseed industry, which will not completely repeat the mistakes of the soybean industry. Therefore, by sorting governmental policy of support measures, discussing the problems of these measures and learning the policies and experiences of other countries on maintaining the oil industry security, finally we proposed some recommendations on protecting rapeseed industry security for our governmental policies.The details are summarized briefly as follows:Chapter1is introduction. The research background and significance, basic concept and scoping definition, research target and research synopsis, research method, possible innovation and deficiencies, etc. are introduced in this chapter.Chapter2is the review and assessment of domestic and foreign research. The theoretical origins of industry security, industrial security at home and abroad and the research status for rape industry are summarized and reviewed.Chapter3is the analysis for the status of rapeseed industrial development and industrial security issues. The overview of the rapeseed industrial development in production, processing, consumption and trade are described. How to generate and get attention gradually for the rapeseed industry security problem is analyzed. The four significant security risks for current rapeseed industry are summarized.Chapter4is the empirical assessment and forecasting for the rapeseed industry security (degrees). The assessment system consists of3first class indexes and13second indexes. According to the value of each index in1985-2012years, the corresponding value in each index in2013-2020is predicted with gray metabolism GM (1,1) model. Principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to quantitatively estimate and predict the rapeseed industry security in1985-2020, and the results obtained by above two estimation methods were compared.Chapter5is the current status of regional development and industrial security situation analysis for rapeseed industry. The development status of14provinces for rapeseed industry in the production, processing, consumption, distribution and trade are compared, and finally find out the exited factors on rapeseed industry security during the evolution of the region layout for rapeseed industry.Chapter6is the empirical evaluation and clustered analysis for the rapeseed regional industrial security. In reference to the existing research results, an assessment system of rapeseed regional industrial security was build, and the industrial security levels on14major provinces in2003-2012were quantitatively estimated and clustered by factor analysis and cluster analysis method.Chapter7is an empirical assessment of the pricing right on rapeseed industry. Four steps for determining whether the pricing right is lacked was set up, and the results were verified. Product imports and import prices, relationship between international prices, relationship between the import price fluctuations and the world supply surplus, dynamic contrast between import prices with international market prices, and the relevance among spot price of rapeseed oil, future price in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and future price in Canada Commodity Exchange were analyzed.Chapter8hackled the rape industry policy of China, and used the experience of main related countries for reference. It summarized policies and measures from64copies of the document involved with rape industry of China from1990to2013, which is on aspects such as rape industrial distribution, industrial development and products trade, and put forward some policy problems. The article also summed up the oilseed support policy of seven countries such as America, Canada, Japan, and presented the experience that we can learn.Chapter9is the main conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of the main conclusions, this paper gave policy suggestions from9aspects.The main conclusions of this paper: The security degree of rape industry of China shows a downward tendency as a whole in2013-2012. It can be predicted that the security degree of rape industry of China will continue to decline from2013to2020. If we assume that100points is completely insecure, it’s possible to score73.01points in2012and73.80points in2020. There was a fluctuation of the security degree of rape industry of14corn-producing provinces in2003-2012. The difference of the security degree in majority of provinces is not obvious. Problems exist in China’s rape industry pricing power when China imports rapeseed products. China has no independent international pricing right. And under the situation of importing a great quantity of rapeseed products, China’s rape industry security still faces international market price risk.