Research On China’s Cotton Industry Security On Basis Of Imported Fluctuation

Cotton is an important agricultural commodities after the food industry in china. Since the Reform and Opening-up, cotton production is showing greater volatility, and the situation of marketed overdemand and oversupply occurs repeatedly. So the government introduced a series of policies to improve the cotton circulation system. After joining the WTO, the cotton textile industry has a significant increase in demand of cotton, makes expand imports of cotton. Especially in recent years, substantial imports of cotton have a serious impact on the development of the domestic cotton market, the volatility of imported cotton has become an important factor affecting the safety of China’s cotton industry.For the fluctuation of cotton importing, the article analyzes the domestic cotton supply and demand at first. We fund that domestic overdemand for cotton is an important cause of substantial imports of cotton. In addition, forecasting China’s cotton supply and demand in ten years, we concluded that there still has a trend of expansion in the gap of supply and demand. Finally, the article analyzed the impact of importing volatility on China’s cotton industry security theoretically.For the Chin’s cotton industry security, we selected some indicators after learning related article from the domestic and international aspects to build cotton industry security indicator system. Then, combining the importing volatility and the industry security of cotton, the article calculated the weight of each indictor relative to the overall goal with the analytic hierarchy process.Aftering a weighted summation to China’s cotton industry security indictor for the years from1995to2012, we got the cotton industry security status score. The finding showed that China’s cotton industry security generally in a low level, and most of years was in the basic security state, and a number of years also appeared unsafe condition. Among them, the indictor score of industrial international competitiveness and industrial control showed downward trend, and the industry living environment has not improved. In particular, the international competitiveness of industry in an unsafe condition in most of years directs worsened the security status of the cotton industry.