The Study On Chinese Dce Soybean Pricing Position Based On The Industry Security Angle

Chinese soybean industry safety and national food safety are threatened since the lack of soybean price decision right under the impact from the international market. The deepen research on the Chinese soybean pricing right from the angle of industry safety could bring several reference about the commodities pricing rights fetching as well as the national food security sustaining. Based on the relevant theories,this article use the relevant analysis, co-integration analysis, causality test as well as the Hasbrouck information share mode to implement a empirical study on the soybean future price between DEC and CBOT.There are two results found out.(1)There exists a extremely high soybean price revelation between DEC and CBOT, namely 90%. The balance relation is long-term and stable, which is so called co-integration relation.(2) The Granger causality test shows that the relationship had changed into bilateral during 2005-2008, while the relationship was unilateral during 2001-2004. The result tells that the DCE is a important player rather than a accepter in international soybean pricing process. (3) Through Hasbrouck information share mode, the DCE contributes 41.89% while the CBOT contributes 58.11%, which tells sort of distance. But the phase comparison analysis argues the distance is diminishing, and somehow suggests that Chinese soybean future market gains a remarkable development which enhances the position of the pricing process. Finally, the paper gives several inner and outer measures to development Chinese soybean future market from the angel of national food security.