Impacts Of Energy Saving Technology And Energy Structure Adjustment On CO₂ Emission Of Chinese Iron And Steel Industry

CO₂ emission of the Chinese Iron and Steel Industry takes more than 10% of the Chinese total CO₂ emission.Therefore,to reduce the CO₂ emission of the Chinese Iron and Steel Industry can help to low down the total CO₂ emission.And in order to reduce CO₂ emission,to promote the Energy Saving Technology and to optimize the Energy Structure are two effective measures to achieve the goal.However,the Chinese Iron and Steel industry is in a complex environment.Thus,it is useful for making policies and finding a better understanding on the relationship between energy saving technology and energy structure adjustment when analyzing in a complex environment or system.Thus,this paper builds an “Energy Consumption – CO₂emission” model based on System Dynamics and analyzes the impacts of Energy Saving Technology and Energy Structure Adjustment on CO₂ emission of Chinese Iron and Steel Industry.?1?To identify the boundary of the “Energy Consumption – CO₂ Emission”system which runs under the background of Chinese economic and Iron and Steel industry development.The system is a complex system including economic factor,population,Chinese Iron and Steel industry,Energy consumption,CO₂ emission and any other factors.The “Energy Consumption – CO₂ Emission” is divided into four sub-systems which are “People-Economic”,“Iron and Steel Production Capacity”,“Iron and Steel Consumption”,and “Energy Consumption – CO₂ Emission”.?2?To build the “Energy Consumption – CO₂ Emission” system dynamic model.By creating the causality and system flow diagrams the system connects all the factors together to analyze the impacts of Energy Saving Technology and Energy Structure Adjustment on CO₂ from.And then,tests the feasibility of the system to make sure the system is applicable.And then,to analyze the sensitivity of Energy Saving Technology,Nature Gas consumption percentage,Coke consumption percentage,Coal consumption percentage,Electricity consumption percentage on energy consumption and CO₂ Emission.?3?Setting up four different kinds of Scenarios to analyze the impacts of Energy Saving Technology and Energy Structure Adjustment from 2016 – 2030.Thefour scenarios are: Chinese Iron and Steel Industry CO₂ Emission,Chinses Iron and Steel Industry Energy Saving Technology,Chinese Iron and Steel industry Energy Structure Adjustment,Chinese Iron and Steel industry integrated scenario.The Chinese Iron and Steel Industry CO₂ Emission is that when the energy saving technology rate is 0.7%,the fossil energy takes 89%,and the electricity consumption takes 11%.In order to reduce the total energy consumption in 2020 compared to 2016 for more than 10% under this scenario,it is necessary to keep the increasing rate of supply lowering than 3.9%.Under the Chinses Iron and Steel Industry Energy Saving Technology scenario,the results show that the impact of the technology on CO₂ emission is getting stronger and bigger through time.Under the Chinese Iron and Steel industry Energy Structure Adjustment scenario,the results show that even though the CO₂ emission intensity is decreasing,the impact of energy structure adjustment on CO₂ emission is not strong enough when the fossil energy takes more than 79%.Under the Chinese Iron and Steel industry integrated scenario,the degree of impact of the combination of high technology with high energy consumption is getting similar to degree of the combination of low technology with low energy consumption.In total,these four scenarios can all achieve the requirements of <Plan for Adjustment and Upgrading of Iron and Steel Industry?2016 – 2020?>,and <Work Together to Build a Win-Win,Fair and Equitable Climate Change Governance Mechanism>.