Study On Energy Conservation And Carbon Emissions Target Of Guangdong Province In 2020

Energy intensity and total energy consumption,carbon emissions and intensity,as well as non-fossil energy of primary energy consumption are set as binding-goals in national and regional medium and long term planning.These three targets are interrelated but set by different government departments.As an economically advanced province,Guangdong(GD)has set ambitious goals in energy consumption and intensity,and will increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25% in the provincial 13 th Five-Year Plan(FYP)period.Thus,it’s of great significance to study and assess these targets and their interrelationship.From the point of view of energy consumption and carbon emissions,this study focuses on analyzing the changes of energy consumption and supply with economic growth,established the carbon calculation model of the electric power industry in Guangdong province,and provided an index system of energy consumption and carbon emissions of per unit electricity consumed by end user.The LMDI model was used to analyze the impact factors of changes of energy intensity and carbon intensity in GD between 2005 and 2014.Based on the study above,scenario analysis was built to forecast the energy consumption and intensity,carbon emissions and intensity as well as share of non-fossil energy in the total energy consumption.Relevant policy recommendations were provided for decision makers.Conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the net purchased electricity helps to abate CO2 emissions from the electricity sector in GD because the southern grid emission factor is lower than GD’s emission factor.From 2005 to 2015,t he power industry has made an important contribution for regional energy saving and carbon intensity reduction,which can be mainly attributed to falling in coal consumption in power generation,power plant auxiliary power and loss rate of power grid.In the scenario of the planned clean power put into operation as scheduled,it will meet province’s power demand with an average growth of 6% with no need of newly-built coal-fired units in the 13 th FYP period.In addition to the electric power industry efforts,more emphasizes should be put on electricity consumption efficiency in order to achieve the province’s energy conservation and carbon emission reduction target.Secondly,the energy efficiency improvement of each industry was the main drive force of energy intensity reduction;the industrial structure adjustment helps to reduce the energy intensity in the 12 th FYP period compared with the period of the 11 th FYP.The average annual growth rate of energy consumption of household was lower than that of GDP,which helps to lower the energy intensity,yet its contribution decreased in the 12 th FYP period.It can be anticipated that the ongoing energy consumption of household would bring a great challenge to the regional energy saving and carbon emissions reduction target.More attentions should be focus on t he household energy consumption.Thirdly,to break down the factors of energy intensity as well as carbon emissions and intensity from 2005 to 2014,energy consumption growth is the main factor to drive the carbon emissions growth,the energy intensity reduction of each industry is the main factor promoting carbon intensity decreased.Carbon emission factor of energy changes help to abate carbon emissions and intensity decline.The energy consumption structure change attribute to carbon emission while it helps to slowed the carbon emissions in the 12 th FYP period.Unlike the decomposition result of energy intensity,industrial structure change is not conducive to carbon intensity reduction.In addition,for the energy consumption for raw materials,it would bring huge pressure on regional energy saving target without any carbon emissions.The development of petrochemical industry will impact differently to the energy saving and carbon emissions target.Fourthly,scenarios analysis of energy consumption intensity and the amount of carbon emissions and intensity,non-fossil energy were used to predict the energy consumption proportion.Conclusions are as follows: GD is expected to achieve the target reducing energy consumption per unit GDP by 17% preliminarily,but exceed the energy consumption increment,which was allocated by central government.By 2020,the carbon emissions of GD is estimated to be between 552.28 million tons and 630.45 million tons,thus the carbon emissions intensity would be between 0.583 tCO2 per ten thousand yuan and 0.523 tCO2 per ten thousand yuan;The carbon emissions intensity decrease by 52.7%-57.2%,share of non-fossil energy in the total energy consumption reach 25.4%-28.2%,all of the indicators will meet the planning.Finally,in terms of the provincial target of the 13 th FYP,more attention should be paid on energy efficiency to reduce energy demand in the first place in addition to speed up the clean energy use.Reaching carbon emission peak of the e0 lectric power industry is the important precondition to reach the provincial total carbon emissions peak,in addition to the electric power industry efforts,still should strengthen electric power demand side management,avoiding power demand grow too fast.As far as the policy making of energy saving and low carbon in the future,efforts should be put on technology progress as well as internal structure adjustment and optimization.More focus should be put on household energy saving.