Study Of The Influential Factors Of The Carbon Emissions And Emissions Reduction Scenario In China

With the rapid development of our country’s economy, the environment problem is increasingly prominent; especially carbon emissions attract more and more attention among academics. This paper sorts out relevant theory and literature review of the carbon emission, analyzes the energy consumption in 1997-2014, measures the status quo of China’s carbon emissions based on the method that put forward by IPCC for estimating the carbon emissions, and analyzes the current carbon emissions situation from two aspects. The result shows that China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions develop by a steady growth trend, the main source of carbon emissions is a fossil fuel, and the carbon intensity showed a trend of decline, present the trend of rising per capita carbon emissions. 1997-2013, carbon emissions of Shandong is the highest, the lowest is Hainan; per capital carbon emissions of Inner Mongolia’s is the highest, the lowest is Jiangxi province; the average carbon emission intensity of the highest province is Ningxia, the lowest is Guangdong. The amount of industry carbon emissions is highest in 1993-2013, industrial emissions of carbon accounted for 71.07% of the total carbon emissions, followed by living consumption; The carbon intensity of the highest industry is industry, followed by transportation, warehousing and postal service; manufacturing’s carbon emissions account is the highest proportion of industrial carbon emissions, and the highest sectors of carbon emissions black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, next is chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-metallic minerals manufacturing, electricity, heat production and supply industry, oil processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry and textile industry.According to LMDI decomposition model, the influence factors of carbon emissions is decomposed into economic level, energy intensity and energy structure, industrial structure, population structure, population levels. We found that the per capita GDP is the main pull factor of carbon emissions; energy intensity is the main restraining factors. By constructing panel regression model,we found that there have inverted u-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and China’s regional economic, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure has obvious effects on carbon emissions, its elasticity is 0.309, 0.260, 0.276; The influence of the urbanization rate on carbon emissions is not significant.Combining with the economic and social development goals, the paper set the benchmark case, and predict that the cumulative carbon emissions in 2015-2025 will reach 552.62 million tons, an average annual growth of our country’s carbon emissions is 4.59%, 3.92% in the 13 th and 14 th Five-Year Plan. And by adjusting the speed of economic growth, industrial structure, energy structure and energy intensity, then put forward the following Suggestions: 1) We should moderately control the speed of economic growth in China, and change the China’s economic growth way positively; 2) Each region should increase investment in research and development of energy-saving technology, and formulate relevant policies to encourage enterprises to introduce advanced production technology and energy saving technology; 3) Strengthen the optimization of energy consumption structure, development and utilization of renewable energy and clean energy technology, reduce the coal oil and other fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. 4) Develop the circular economy, in order to improve the utilization efficiency of energy.