Research On The Decomposition Of Key Factors Of Carbon Emissions In The Power Industry In Guizhou Province And The Countermeasures For Peaking

A series of environmental problems caused by greenhouse gas emission have aroused the attention of all countries in the world.China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions around 2030.The power sector is considered China's biggest carbon emitter.As an economically underdeveloped region in southwest China,Guizhou Province is facing the double pressure of economic development and carbon emission reduction.Based on this background,in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission peak in the power industry of Guizhou Province,the main work and research results are as follows:(1)Decomposition of key influencing factors of carbon emission and prediction of carbon peak in the power industry in Guizhou Province.Nine influencing factors were decomposed by hierarchical LMDI model.Assuming that per capita GDP keeps growing rapidly,nine development scenarios are set according to the two factors of power supply structure and power generation coal consumption,and the STIRPAT model is used to predict carbon emissions.The results showed that there were three types of carbon peaks: scenario 1,scenario 2 and scenario 4.It shows that the carbon emission peak target of Guizhou power industry in 2030 can be achieved by adjusting power supply structure and reducing power generation coal consumption.Therefore,it is suggested to enhance the optimization of energy structure through resource allocation and further reduce coal consumption for power generation,so as to achieve the purpose of reducing carbon emissions.(2)The power supply cost calculation model is established to calculate the power supply cost in three scenarios of peak.The power supply cost is divided into non-renewable energy supply cost and renewable energy supply cost.The cost of non-renewable energy power supply includes fuel cost,operation and maintenance cost and carbon emission cost.The cost of renewable energy includes the cost of new investment and the cost of operation and maintenance.It is estimated that the total cost of power supply in the three peak scenarios is 391.755 billion yuan,394.881 billion yuan and 402.770 billion yuan respectively.That is,scenario one has the lowest power cost.(3)The carbon emissions and corresponding economic compensation of electricity trade under the three scenarios of peak are calculated,and the emission reduction paths are screened again,and the Best Cities tool was used to evaluate the suitability of low-carbon policies in Guizhou Province.The results show that the power cost of scenario 1 is still the lowest after subtracting the economic compensation.A total of 81 policies were assessed as priorities,including 16 policies related to the power sector.At last,the countermeasures are proposed from three aspects of power supply structure,energy consumption and other emission reduction policies.