Research On Energy And Environmental Impact Of Electric Vehicle Based On HLCA

Since the reform and opening up,With the sustained and rapid economic growth,the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the requirement of people for trip quality,China's private car ownership continues to grow rapidly.The transportion sector energy consumption was also growing rapidly,which brought a series of problems and challenges to the economy and society,such as petroleum security became worse,greenhouse gases emissions continue to rise,environmental pollution increased rapidly.In the future,with the further development of economy and society,rapid growth in demand for private cars is difficult to change.In order to reduce regional environmental pollution emissions and greenhouse gas emissions,promote low-carbon development of transportation sector must be enforced.Compared with the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle,the electric vehicle consumed less fuel and emitted less pollution emissions.It draws more and more attention in the world.In order to promote the low-carbon development of transportation sector,many countries have launched their own electric vehicle development strategy.China has also payed much attention to the development of electric vehicles,and carry out a series of policy measures to promote the development of electric vehicles.However,due to the electric power is the secondary energy source,the emission reduction effect of electric vehicle is depended on the energy consumption of upstream production process of electric power.Because of coal is the major energy in China's electric power structure and it is difficult to change before 2050,the emission reduction effect of electric vehicle in China must be calculated by the Life Cycle Assessment method.At present,some experts and scholars have done some research on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission of electric vehicle based on the Process-based Life Cycle Assessment,but there were many differences between these results,and there were less studies on the energy and environmental impact of electric vehicle in the medium and long term.Therefore,this paper intends to make a further study on the energy and environmental impact of the large-scale development of electric vehicles in the future.The energy and environmental impact of the large-scale development in the medium and long term issue is a complex system problem.There are three major problems must be considered.First,the development trend of electric vehicles in the future.Secondly,the energy and environmental impact of an electric vehicle compared with the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle.In the last,the energy and environmental impact of a large-scale electric electric vehicle compared with the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle in the future.First of all,this paper studies the development trend of electric vehicle in the future.Because of electric vehicle development history is very short and has few historical data,the traditional car ownership forecast method is not suitable for the electric vehicle.This paper constructs an electric vehicle development and power demand forecasting model based on combine with the income distribution curve method and scenario analysis method.Using this model,the trend of the development of electric vehicles and the requirements of electric power in the future have been calculated.Secondly,the energy consumption,greenhouse gas emissions and conventional pollutants emissions of a single gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle,plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle were studied.Considering that the Process-based Life Cycle Assessment method has truncation error,it will have a great impact on the research results.The Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment method has been used to construct a life cycle energy consumption,greenhouse gas emissions and pollutant emission calculation model of passenger car.Using this model,the energy consumption,greenhouse gas emissions and conventional pollutants emissions of a single gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle,plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle has been calculated.In the process of constructe the electric vehicle life cycle energy consumption and environmental impact assessment model,the life cycle of charging facilities for electric vehicles has been contained.Finally,the future trend of the energy and environment impact of the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle,plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle has been calculated based on the Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment method and scenario analysis method.Based on the calculation results,China's long-term policies recommendations for the development of electric vehicles have been put forward.Based on the above research work,the main conclusions as follow:?1?The private electric vehicles will have three kinds development trend in the future.The number of private electric vehicles may be more than 400 million in 2050.?2?Compared to the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle,the energy consumption of electric vehicle in the life cycle is still more higher,but the fossil energy consumption is less,and the oil consumption was significantly reduced.It is good for the safety of oil.?3?Under the current power structure,the total life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of pure electric vehicles are about 1.18 times higher than the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle.?4?In the whole life cycle,gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle and pure electric vehicles have different advantages and disadvantages.The VOCs and CO emissions of pure electric vehicles are lower than the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles,while the emissions of HC,NO_x,SO₂,PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 are higher than the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle.?5?The demand for the electric vehicles in the future will be greatly affected by the power supply structure.?6?With the increasing use of non fossil energy in the future,the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles will less than the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle.?7?In the future,the large-scale development of electric vehicles will reduce the VOCs,CO and HC emissions,and increase the NO_X,PM_2.5,PM₁₀ and SO₂ emissions.?8?In the future,the long-term development strategy of electric vehicles should be established combined with the development trend of national power.