Spatio-temporal Dynamics And Prediction Of Grassland Landscape Services

Landscape services (LSs) are the benefits people obtain from the landscape. And it is the basis for improving human well-being and achieving landscape sustainability. With the increasing intensity of human activities, the landscape on the earth is affected by human activities in different degrees. The continuously changing landscape also changes the potential capacity of the landscape for providing products and services. Therefore, LSs have been paying the attention for many scholars in recent years. It has become the frontier and hotspot of multidisciplinary in landscape ecology, geography, and sustainability science. In this case study, we selected Xilin River Basin in Inner Mongolia, China, which is one of the most representative typical grasslands of the region. Using remote sensing and GIS data and the field survey data collected in 1983, 1989,2000, and 2011, Aboveground biomass (AGB), Grazing intensity (GI), soil conservation (SC), water retention (WR), Carbon storage (CS), and landscape aesthetics (LA) were estimated to assess LSs for each year. The temporal and spatial characteristics of grassland LSs were depicted and analyzed. The relationships of Grassland LSs in the study area were clarified, and the hotspots distribution and characteristics of grassland landscape services were examined. Finally, based on the CA-Markov model, the grassland vegetation pattern and grassland LSs were simulated and analyzed. The conclusions are followed:(1) All the grassland LSs except the GI generally decrease following the southeast-northwest spatial gradient. From 1983 to 2011, except for the GI, the grassland LSs decreased during 1983-2000 and increased during 2000-2011. The spatial distribution of GI at different periods is quite different. For the past 30 years, the high GI gradually moved from the north to the south of the Xilin River Basin and extended to the whole study area. Moreover, the increase of SC was slow compared to other LSs, which is an indication of the time lag in soil restoration.(2) At the sub-basin scale, from 1983 to 2011, the AGB, SC, WR, CS and LA in the upper, middle and lower reaches showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, while temporal dynamics of GI generally mirrored that of other grassland LSs. The change of reduced AGB, SC, WR, CS and LA as well as the increased GI occurred in the upper reaches, and then moved to the lower reache. For different vegetation types, there is different capability of LSs for various grassland vegetation types. The meadow steppe had the highest LSs, followed by sand vegetation, meadow and typical steppe. In particular, mesophyious forbs meadow steppe had the highest the capability of LSs, followed by Leymus chinensis steppe, Stipa grandis and Stipa krylovii steppe.(3) AGB exhibited trade-offs with GI and WR, while exhibited the synergies with SC, CS, and LA. GI exhibited trade-offs with SC, CS, and LA, while GI and WR exhibited a synergy. There is a trade-off existed between CS and WR, while CS exhibited synergies with SC and LA. SC and WR exhibited a trade-off, while a synergy existed between SC and LA. There is a trade-off existed between WR and LA.(4) It is consistent in the hotspots of the spatial distribution of individual grassland LSs. The hotspots of LSs were mainly located in the upper reaches and most of them are more than three kinds of individual grassland LSs hotspots. Also, less than two kinds of hotspots of grassland LSs were scattered in the middle and lower reaches. Therefore, it is critical to protecting the grassland in the upper reaches.(5) In different scenarios, the area of meadow steppe and typical steppe would be decreased, while that of sandy vegetation, meadow and other vegetation types would be increased. For the different formation type, the area of mesophyious forbs meadow steppe would be decreased under different scenarios, while the area of Leymus chinensis steppe and Stipa grandis steppe would be increased. The area of Stipa krylovii steppe would be decreased under the usual and planning scenarios. The area of farmland, city and industrial land would be increased in the usual and vegetation restoration scenarios.(6) In different scenarios, the grassland LSs generally decrease following the southeast-northwest spatial gradient. The usual scenario and restoration scenario would help to maintain and enhance the capability of the grassland LSs.