| Global land use change is increasingly affected by climate change and human activities.As one of the most important components of land use,cultivated land has a strong impact on its ecosystem services.How to effectively maintain the stability of cultivated land ecosystem and strengthen its sustainability is a common challenge facing human society.Since the reform and opening up,China’s urbanization process has been advancing rapidly and the rural economy has developed rapidly.However,the resulting problems such as the shortage of cultivated land resources,the difficulty of water and soil matching and the pollution caused by high input and high output have become important shackles restricting the future high-quality development.At the same time,we see that in the context of the global epidemic,the space available for China’s food adjustment is very limited.Therefore,how to ensure the stability of cultivated land ecosystem to promote the sustainable utilization of agricultural resources will be an important problem for the long-term integration of urban and rural development and Rural Revitalization.Under this background,it is of great significance to explore and solve the problem of cultivated land sustainable utilization in time and space.On the one hand,this study helps to reveal the complex interaction path between the natural environment,human activities and cultivated land ecosystem in theory,and also reveals the risks and conflicts faced by cultivated land utilization in the future.It helps to guide the orderly utilization of land and space,and is an important basis for ensuring food security,promoting socio-economic development and ecological protection.The Yangtze River economic belt is an important strategic support belt carrying China’s socio-economic development and a key area for China’s grain production and ecological protection.The cultivated land area accounts for about 33% of the national cultivated land area.It is an important major grain producing area and commodity grain base in the country,and plays an important role in ensuring national food security.Promoting the protection of cultivated land in the Yangtze River economic belt is not only the key to respond to the needs of national food security,but also of great significance to support rural development and promote the coordinated development of the eastern,central and western regions.However,in the past 20 years,the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization has profoundly changed the surface pattern of the Yangtze River economic belt,and the stress on regional resources,environment and food security has increased sharply.Since 2000,the construction land occupation,abandonment and quality degradation of cultivated land in the Yangtze River economic belt have been prominent,and the regional differences of cultivated land resources are obvious,which has a profound impact on the sustainable use of cultivated land and regional development.This study focuses on the strategic background of high-quality development,ecological civilization construction and food security in the new era.This paper is based on the theory of sustainable development,and some technology such as remote sensing and GIS,system analysis and model evaluation are also applied in our reseach.As for the contents,we firstly reveal the evolution law and causes of cultivated ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in recent 20 years.Next,we explore the action mechanism of differentiated development objectives on cultivated ecosystem services,and simulate the future development scenario.Then,based on the research,we put forward corresponding protection policies.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)In response to the needs of cultivated land protection in the new era,we try to analyze the connotation of cultivated ecosystem services,and build a multi-dimensional technical method system of cultivated ecosystem services evaluation based on grid scale combined with multi-source data such as POI and software such as invest.We try to establish the evaluation system of cultivated ecosystem services including the seven core services: food production,carbon storage,water conservation,environmental purification,soil conservation,landscape aesthetics and habitat maintenance,which could provide new ideas and perspectives for the theory and methods of multi-scale ecosystem service evaluation.(2)From the perspective of the evolution of cultivated ecosystem services and the trade-off and synergy of various services,this paper reveals the evolution law of cultivated ecosystem services in multi-temporal and spatial scales in the Yangtze River economic belt.The study found that 2015 was an important turning point for the change of cultivated ecosystem services in the Yangtze River economic belt,and the focus of many services showed a trend of eastward migration.The analysis of regional differences based on grid scale shows that the services of carbon storage,food supply and landscape aesthetics in the Yangtze River economic belt are higher in the plain than in the mountainous area,while the services of soil conservation and habitat maintenance are higher in the mountainous area than in the plain.In the past 20 years,there has been an obvious but weakened synergy between a number of cultivated ecosystem services in the Yangtze River economic belt,and only several services such as water conservation and soil conservation have a trade-off relationship.The research results can not only help to promote cultivated ecosystem services from trade-off to synergy,but also provide an important reference for regional cultivated land use and management decision-making.(3)Based on the detection results of OLS and GWR models,and the theory of manland relationship and landscape ecology,we try to reveals the key factors and their action paths affecting the evolution of cultivated ecosystem service pattern,and constructs a conceptual model of service evolution with "natural environment-human activities-utilization benefits" as the core.The results show that precipitation,slope and disposable income of rural residents will have a differentiated impact on ecosystem services of different cultivated land,and there is an obvious scale effect and spatial imbalance.Different combinations of climate and hydrological conditions will directly drive the change of cultivated land structure and its utilization mode,while human society will change the planting type and mode of regional cultivated land through administrative,technical and other means under the background of interest driven,and then affect the service of regional cultivated land ecosystem.The geographically weighted regression model introduced in the study helps to reveal the regional reasons for the formation of cultivated ecosystem service,and provides a new idea and perspective for exploring cultivated land ecosystem protection from the perspective of regional differentiation.(4)Focusing on the main line of "scenario deconstruction-path analysis-scenario prediction",this paper firstly establish the prediction model of cultivated ecosystem services by integrating multiple factors such as the coupling influence of natural and human factors and land suitability.Then,we try to explore the evolution dynamics of multi scenario cultivated ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2030,and diagnoses the utilization risk of regional cultivated land ecosystem.It is found that human activities and macro policy system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will have a higher impact on construction land,cultivated land and forest than other types of land use.Under the three development scenarios,the total area of cultivated land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will decrease in varying degrees in 2030,and the conversion difference between cultivated land and forest and construction land is obvious.In 2030,a number of cultivated land ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will decline,and there will be substandard grain self-sufficiency rates in Western Sichuan,Guizhou,Zhejiang and other regions.The systematic prediction theory and model of cultivated ecosystem services established will help to promote the "development scenario and service response" from "separation" to "integration",and strengthen the systematicness and scientificity of ecosystem service prediction.(5)Aiming at the regional pattern,stage characteristics and typical problems of cultivated land protection in the Yangtze River economic belt,this paper discusses the multi-level and multi-objective cultivated ecosystem management strategy,and puts forward the zoning theory and method based on cultivated land ecosystem services.First,based on the deconstruction of policy documents,we try to analyze the direct objectives,control objectives and final objectives of cultivated land ecosystem management in the Yangtze River economic belt.Second,we try to explore the focus of cultivated land ecosystem management in the new era from the perspectives of strategic transformation,improvement of planning and policies,and improvement of resource utilization.Third,we try to explore the comprehensive zoning method with cultivated ecosystem service as the core,and identify five types,including agricultural production type,ecological protection type and leisure and entertainment type.The objectives,principles,paths and Strategies of cultivated ecosystem management proposed in the study can effectively support the current policies and institutional arrangements such as land spatial planning and agricultural zoning. |
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