The Study Of Climate Change Impact On The Vulnerability Of The Agricultural Production Of Northern Farming-pastoral Region

In recent years, affected by global warming and human ii-rational economic activity, environment in northern farming-pastoral region has been unprecedented devastation, exacerbated the trend of ecological degradation, on the region and the evolution of the country's environment and sustainable development have caused a serious negative impact.Taking the northern farming-pastoral region as an example, based on the analysis of the main ecological environment problems, this thesis uses AHP and fuzzy synthetically judgments to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural-production of northern farming-pastoral region. Finally, using the nested results of general circulation models and regional climate model, in combination with certain socio-economic development forecast results, it assesses the agricultural-production climate vulnerability under the climate change. Specific details are as follows:1. Based on the existent results, the thesis delimitates the specific research areas, and analyzes the vulnerable status from four aspects, including agricultural climate resources, the types of land desertification, agricultural production and socio-economic development.2. This thesis selects nineteen indexes under four categories to evaluate the vulnerable status of agricultural production of farming-pastoral region. The weight of each index was determined by using an improved analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and then it selects uniform distribution function to define the subordinate degree of each index. At last, it evaluates the vulnerable status by means of fuzzy synthetically judgment. The results showed that the districts of serious vulnerability occupied a large proportion, Bashang Grassland in Hebei, the northern part of Shaanxi and Shanxi more concentrated.3. Based on the nested result of general circulation model and regional climate model, it gets the climate scenario in 2030, and combines the results of land-use and socio-economic development prospects to assess the climate vulnerability of agricultural production of farming-pastoral region. The result showed that the number of serious vulnerability counties will decrease largely, and that of general vulnerability counties will increase. The climate vulnerability of agricultural-production of farming-pastoral region will be lower totally.4. According to the guiding ideology of ecological management in future farming-pastoral region, combining different regional agricultural production status, proposed district governance and sustainable development measures...