An Empirical Study On Relationship Between China Language Service Industry And Foreign Trade

With the rapid development of globalization,language service plays an increasingly important role in the “go-global” economy,especially in foreign trade.According to the existing theoretical research and empirical analysis methods at home and abroad,this paper has investigated 973 language-service-related companies and individuals through questionnaire investigation and field survey and constructed the language-service-industry-index model on the basis of panel data which is the quantity,type and registered capital of language service industry companies from1993 to 2015 covering 31 provinces in China.Moreover,this model uses var model of time series,unit root test,co-integration test and Granger causality test systematically to analyze the relationship between the development of industy and the increase of foreign trade.In order to formulate the development policy for language service industry and promote the industry to provide better service for the foreign trade development,this paper tests the effect and influence on foreign trade.For example,by using panel data var model and impulse response function,this paper analyzes the relationship and differences between language service and foreign trade in different parts of China including the east part,the center part and the west part.Moreover,the paper uses Grey forecasting model(GM(1.1))to forecast the scale of language service industry and foreign trade in ten years.After scenarios analysis,this paper also forecasts different situations that language service industry could meet the needs of foreign trade so as to provide some bases for better development.The main innovative research results are as follows:(1)This paper has investigated 973 language-service-related Organizations.To make people know more about the currentdevelopment status of the industry,this paper makes a preliminary judgement,which also makes up for the lack of statistical data.(2)Based on the panel data which covers the quantity,type and registered capital of language service industry companies,this paper has constructed the language-service-industry-index model from 1993 to 2015 covering 31 provinces in China,which provides a quantitative method for evaluation of the language service industry scale.Meanwhile,this paper could make better analysis of therelationship between the language service industry and foreign trade and make the industrial demand forecasting.(3)According to the empirical research on national and regional level,the development of China language service industry and foreign trade have a long-lasting impact for each other.However,both impacts vary in direction,size and districts.(4)According to GM(1,1)analysis,the supply of the language service industry will exceed its demand in 2025.Considering uncertainty influencing factors and different situations that the industry could meet the needs of foreign trade,this paper puts forward some policy proposals for the further development of the industry.