Explaining The Hedging Strategies Of Southeast Asia States(1997-2015)

In this dissertation,the central puzzle to be addressed is why Southeast Asian states have usually pursued a hedging strategy to deal with China's rise,rather than balancing against it.The study finds that Southeast Asian states,which are typically small and medium-sized powers in the international system,show strong inclinations to adopt a hedging strategy,i.e.to develop parallel security relationships with great powers in the neighbourhood,so maintaining a balance between security dependence and state autonomy.However,whether or not this inclination may turn into policy practice is significantly influenced by the nature of security competition between these great powers.More specifically,there is little room for a hedging strategy when zero-sum competition dominates the great-power relationship;to the contrary,hedging strategy will only become a general tendency when these great powers compete moderately.Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997,the security competition between China and the United States has been relatively benign and healthy.Under this circumstance,Southeast Asian states have had ample room to pursue a hedging strategy.This study shows that this moderate competition is a result of the significant security pressure China faces.That pressure comes not only from the power advantage of the United States,but also from the US security protection system in East Asia.Through providing security protection to its allies and security partners in the region,such as Japan,South Korea,Australia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Singapore,the United States has received their consent and support for its dominant position there.In order to mitigate the pressure imposed by that security system,China has tried to establish a stable strategic relationship with the United States and at the same time adopt a goodneighbourly policy by promoting comprehensive cooperation with Southeast Asian states.Since the global financial crisis,the moderate competition between China and US has partially weakened.On the one hand,the United States has strengthened its security presence in East Asia,so providing some security partners with incentives to take a strong stance towards China.On the other hand,China has also shifted towards more proactive policies on some security issues.As a result,the hedging room for Southeast Asian states has been reduced and their hedging behaviour has diversified to various extents.First,the Philippines and Vietnam have shifted to a partial balancing strategy;second,Indonesia,Malaysia,and Singapore still try to maintain a balance between China and the United States,but more prudently and cautiously;and third,Myanmar,Thailand,and Cambodia also face some pressure when approaching either one of these great powers.However,the possibility of China-US zero-sum competition is relatively low in the short term due to the continuation of the US power advantage and its security protection system.Therefore,the general hedging tendency of Southeast Asian states can also be maintained.To shape a more favourable regional security environment,it is necessary for China to pursue an overall reassurance policy towards its neighbours,and to appropriately employ proactive tactics towards particular targets at specific times.