Effect Evaluation And Optimization Research Of Relaxing Fertility Control

In order to deal with a variety of socio-economic problems caused by the imbalance of population structure,in October 2015,the China implemented the universal two child policy.But the scholars have some doubts about the effects of the policy.In view of those doubts,we mainly adopt the method of multistage decision,and found thatFirstly,in the short term,two-child policy has crowding effect on output and output per capital,with the newborn baby boomers entering into the labor market,two-child policy will increase the total output and output per capital.At the same time,neither two child policy nor maintaining fertility policy unchanged will can't change the decline trend in economic growth.Compared to unchanged fertility policy,if the two child policy with no complementary measures is mandatory,the two child policy will produce the crowding out effect on the labor's utility in the short time,however,the two child policy will improve the labor's welfare in the future.The two child policy cannot fundamentally change the optimal choice of future pension system,however,it will improve the pension status of the elderly in the future.That means that we should choose the accumulated pension system or reduce the level of intergenerational support for the elderly in the future,meanwhile,we implement the full two child policy as soon as possible.Considering the effects of long and short term under relaxing fertility control,the fertility in accordance with the policy is slightly harmful in the short term and is extremely beneficial in the long run,on the whole,the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.Secondly,in order to avoid the negative impact of the two child policy.Further simulations show that,the measures of labor market reform can effectively avoid the negative impact of relaxing fertility control.Considering that relaxing control fertility cannot solve the fertility externality,the resistance and multiple motives of supporting measures,we further optimize fertility policy by establishing a double objective decision model.The optimization results show that China is likely to choose the unlimited fertility policy after the two child policy.Although unlimited fertility policy can protect family welfare,with the improvement of the urbanization,the society will transit from the Malthus trap to the low fertility trap,no restrictions on family fertility can not solve the fertility externality and protect social welfare.So the optimization direction of fertility policy should be search from the unlimited to the limited.Finally,in the context of disappeared demographic dividend,we promptly assess the two child policy and further optimize the policy,which may provide some references for the development of the follow-up fertility and supporting policies.Eventually,we realize the balanced and sustainable development of population,economy,and society.