| Since 1970 s,with the family planning policy,the population reproduction mode in China has turned to be low birth,low death and low growth from high birth,high death and high growth.At the same time,the total fertility rate of China's population is continuing below normal replacement level.Although the population scale has been effectively controlled,but also brought a series of population structure problems,which will bring serious risks to China's future economic and social development.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out scientific analysis and judgment on the universal two-child policy and its influence.The purpose of this thesis is to study the population change in Guangdong in the context of low fertility in China when universal two-child policy has been implementing.Firstly,the paper hackles the research on low fertility and population policy,then summarizes the history of China's population policy adjustment,and combines the theory of family fertility decision-making to forecast the population changes of Guangdong after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.Finally,the article will compare the above result with the results of population prediction under two separate child policy.Through forecasting,the results are as follows:(1)In the context of the universal two-child policy,the population size of Guangdong reached a peak of 127.7296 million as of 2037,which was 4.0064 million higher than the peak of the two separate child policy,accounting for 3.14% of the resident population,by 2050,the Population is 7.1158 million more than the population number of the two separate child policy,accounting for 5.99% of the resident population,which will not cause too much pressure on the total population;(2)The birth population increases from 1.8579 million in 2016 to 2.2769 million in 2018,then begins to decline year by year,by the year 2038 to 1.2546 million,and then increases year by year.Compared with two separate child policy,the number of child births under universal two-child policy is more than 7.3875 million in 35 years;(3)The median age of the universal two-child policy ranges from 33.08 in 2016 to 45.49 in 2046,to 43.79 in 2050,with an average annual growth rate of 1.06%.The median age of the two separate child policy ranges from 33.1 in 2016 to 47.81 in 2047,to 47.35 in 2050,with average annual growth rate of 1.06%;(4)The scale of the working-age population shows a fluctuating trend as a whole.By the year 2050,the scale of the labor force is at the lowest point of 7.7506 million,3.9561 million more than the policy of the two-separate child policy.The proportion of the working age population showed a declining trend.By 2050,the proportion of the working age population was 61.64%,which was 0.36% less than the two-separate child policy;(5)The size of the elderly population has increased year by year.By 2050,the elderly population reached 32.754 million,63.2 million more than the two-separate child policy.The aging coefficient showed a gradual increase trend,reaching 26 in 2050 and 2.03 in 2048,which was the largest gap with the single childbearing policy.(6)The size of the juvenile population will face a turning point in 2031,reaching 18.8665 million in 2050,3.258 million more than the turning point of the policy of two separate children;(7)In the aspect of social support pressure,the trend of the elderly dependency ratio?the juvenile dependency ratio and the social total dependency ratio of the resident population in Guangdong are basically the same.After the implementation of the universal two-child policy,the old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise to 44.07% by 2050,the juvenile dependency is at a turning point in 2031,reaching 25.42% in 2050,and the total social dependency is increasing from 29.87% in 2016 to 69.49% in 2050,and in 2035 for the first time more than 50%,reaching 51.52%.Both policies will make the total social support ratio of more than 50%.In contrast,the implementation of the universal two-child policy will increase the social support pressure on the working age population and reduce the demographic dividend,but the impact is not obvious.The paper suggests that in the future our country will keep a long time on the low fertility level.We need to cope with the pressure of fertility peak on public resources,the aging of the population,the reduction of labor force,the decrease in the number of births and the contradiction between population development and resource environment.Therefore,on the one hand,Guangdong should fully protect the implementation of the universal two-child policy.On the other hand,we should proceed from five aspects,including improving the quality of the population,improving social security,promoting social integration,building a healthy aging society and achieving a coordinated development of the population and resources environment. |
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