| With the implementation of reform and opening up policies, China's economy has grown rapidly for 30 years. The per capita GNI increased from 190 dollars in 1978 to 6560 dollars in 2013, which means China has successfully finished the role conversion from the low-income country to middle-income country. But after years of rapid economic growth, China's economy has faced stage transformation from "normal state" of high speed growth to "new normal" of medium-high speed growth. The average annual economic growth rate of China between 2001 and 2012 is 10.1%, while the rate of both 2013 and 2014 is 7.4%. According to the forecast of China's annual economic growth rate from China economic growth frontier research group, it's expected between 6.4% and 7.8% for the next 5 years; From the forecast of "the long-term growth" research group in State Council Development Research Center, the average growth rate of next 10 years is about 6.5%. Based on the data above, we find that the growth speed of China's economy is not 2 digital for the first time since 2011, which is considered the "new normal" performance of China's economy. In 2010, China's per capita GNI reached 4035 U.S. dollars, which is over the definition of "medium-high income country" of World Bank in 2012 ($3975). China has succeeded to be medium-high income country. It's becomes the focus of many scholars at present whether China can cross current phase of stagnation and succeed to be the high income economy.Based on the numerical definition of growth acceleration and growth slowdown, we screen out the growth turning points of China and its provinces from 1960 to 2012. Then we make the study of the description of China's long-term economic growth characteristics and trend. At the same time, based on the analysis of cross-countries' growth experience and empirical model, we try to find the engine of steady economic growth of China at the current stage of new normal.Finally, we give the suggestions that how to change growth mode, adjust structure, and provide a theoretical basis and data support for the implementation of sustainable economic growth as soon as possible. The main contents of this dissertation includes:(1) In this dissertation, drawing on previous study and also considering the present situation of China's large population with low per capita income, we relax the constraints of per capita GDP to definite growth acceleration and growth slowdown. According to the definitions, we screen out the time node of China's and provincial growth acceleration and growth slowdown from 1960 to 2012. Through the statistical description and empirical analysis of this dissertation, we find that:Firstly, generally speaking, during the period of 1960-2012, there are a total of 6 growth slowdown points and 14 growth acceleration points in China. Although there are many years when China experienced growth acceleration, it also appeared continuous growth slowdown for sometime, which means the fluctuation of China's economy is cyclical; At the same time, whether growth acceleration points or growth slowdown points, it is all in continuous time. This means that China's economic growth to some extent, shows inertial characteristics. Secondly, through the analysis of the situation of China's provincial regional transfer for growth acceleration during the periods of 1952-2013 in their growth path, we find that the economic growth path of all provinces are frequently experienced growth acceleration, but after 2003 the process of China's economic growth acceleration transferred regionally. The process of growth acceleration in coastal and developed areas gradually disappeared after 2003 and economic growth of these areas tends to be stable. However, the growth of the central and western provinces accelerates obviously, the potential engine of growth in Mid-west areas will be the overall power for the whole steady economic growth.(2) In this dissertation, we examine the sources of economic growth which hinder China's growth acceleration from three aspects of the structural factors, social and environmental factors and the corruption of officials. We obtain the following main conclusions:Firstly, The change of industrial structure in China has periodic characteristics of the impact on economic growth. Specifically, with the gradual increase in the proportion of industrial output value, the possibility of growth acceleration of China's economy will increase at the beginning and then decrease. Secondly, although the demographic dividend is an important driving force to create China's economic miracle, with the arrival of the "Lewis turning point", as an important resource for economic growth in China, demographic dividend will inevitably enter the decay stage, and it will substantially effect China's economy growth acceleration in the short term. Finally, with the deepening of reform and opening up, the improvement of market system and the reduction of government regulation, the negative effects of corruption has exceeded the positive effects and corruption has become another obstacle to accelerate the economic growth in China. In addition, the income gap, environmental issues, including the living environment, the degree of aging and other factors are all the main factors hindering economic growth accelerated in China.(3) This dissertation introduces the information social capital into the model of endogenous growth theory based on innovation. We focuses on exploring how information social capital encourage innovation and the internal theoretical mechanism of improving productivity by promoting the accumulation of human capital and real location between different departments. Then we explore the reasons why exists more than one growth equilibrium points according to analyze and explain the specific implementation path across the growth trap. The theoretical study shows that the increase of the information social capital will improve the efficiency of capital investment and the wage in R&D department. It will attract more people into R&D department, that is, the proportion of human capital in R&D Department will increase. Specifically, individuals can promote their accumulation of human capital by use of the convenient of information social capital to access to and collect information; At the same time, the increase of information society capital investment will make personal education more efficiency, so as to shorten the time required to receive the necessary education. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and three conditions of steady economic growth to be satisfied, we test the effect of information social capital on the steady growth of China's economy using the data of China's 31 provinces from 2001 to 2012. We also examine the mechanism of information social capital how to lead to stable economic growth.(4) On the basis of the comparison of international growth experiences and long-term economic growth data, we try to find the periodic characteristics of economic growth path and the engine of long-term economic growth. We find that, whether the current growth rate of GDP or income per capita, China has experienced growth slowdown, and even continuous growth slowdown will be happened. At the same time, based on the comparison of international growth experience, we conclude that almost all the economies who have succeeded to be high income country grow stably at least 10 years before crossing the growth threshold. The continuous growth slowdowns are always happened after being the high income economy. Then we analyze empirically the engine of sustained economic growth, based on the perspective of stable economic growth. We find that the engine of growth changes in different stage of economic growth. In the periods of balanced growth or accelerated growth, the power factors of the economic growth are similar, but in the periods of growth slowdown, the engine factors are different. |
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