A Study On The Adjustment Of Demand Driving Force Structure Of China Under The Constraints Of The Goal Of Economic Growth

Abstract:Improving national welfare, maintaining the economy steady growth and promoting the economy intensive Growth is a particular embodiment of carrying out the general requirements of the eighteenth Congress of the Communist Party of China about developing the sustained and healthy economy, is also the inevitable requirement of real economic development of China. Consumption, investment and export are the three demand driving forces of economic growth, whose rational structure has a decisive influence on realizing the goal of national welfare, steady growth and intensive growth in the process of economic growth. In order to realize the above economic growth goals, adjusting the present demand driving force structure that is not rational to an optimal state under the constraint of the above goals has become an necessary means of achieving economic growth goals.Under the constraint of the goal of improving national welfare, by contrasting the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of Chenery and Sell Quinn's industrialization process per capita national income hypothesis, in China or region's demand driving force structure the ratio of consumption to GDP, investment to GDP, export to GDP, investment to consumption, investment to export, investment to (consumption plus export) significantly deviate from the standard value in the hypothesis. Therefore, according to the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of Chenery and Sell Quinn's industrialization process per capita national income hypothesis, in order to achieve the goal of improving national welfare, it is necessary to raise the ratio of consumption to GDP, reduce the ratio of investment to GDP, but for the exports demand, the eastern region should reduce the ratio, the Midwest is to improve the ratio.Under the constraint of the goal of steady economic growth, by contrasting the optimal status of the demand driving force structure of the modified hypothesis of improved steady state growth, the ratio of investment to (exports plus consumption) of China and region are not consistent with the optimal path change of the hypothesis in the perspective of steady growth of constant steady-state level of unit demand output and uniformly promoted steady-state level of unit demand output. At present, it is the best choice for China that realize the steady growth of uniformly promoted steady-state level of output, but if we want to achieve this goal, it is required to make the ratio of investment to (consumption plus export) expand at a steady pace. In order to achieve this requirement, it need to appropriately control the increasing speed of investment and rapidly promote the increasing speed of consumption and export in the eastern and central regions and maintain the current basic situation of investment and (consumption plus export) growth in western region in the near future.Under the constraint of the goal of intensive economic growth, by contrasting the index empirical value of optimal demand driving force structure under the factor contribution maximization hypothesis, the overall and regional ratio of investment to consumption, investment to export and investment to (consumption plus export) in China presently leads to the role of the labor and capital to economic growth to be in a non intensive state. Therefore, according to the overall and regional index empirical value of optimal demand driving force structure of China under the factor contribution maximization hypothesis, in order to realize the goal of promoting the intensive growth of economy, it is required to make the ratio of investment to consumption, investment to export and investment to (consumption plus export) gradually to be adjusted to the optimal value interval, but this needs each region to reasonablly control investment, expand consumption and increase or stable export demand according to their own actual.The above analysis shows that, the regional regulation of investment, consumption and export demand is crucial to improving the demand driving force structure and realizing the three goals of improving national welfare, stable growth and intensive growth of economy. Furthermore, the empirical analysis shows that the resident consumption demand is easily influenced by the national income distribution system, the resident income distribution structure, the population structure, the level of urbanization, the social security, the income growth rate of urban residents and the income growth rate of rural residents, etc.; the fixed asset investment demand is easily influenced by the level of industrialization, the national savings rate, the level of urbanization, the rate of return on investment, the foreign capital utilization, the growth rate of government tax, etc.; the export demand is easily influenced by the export product category concentration, the export area concentration, the human capital abundance, the trade structure of export products, the export rebate rate, the technical progress rate, etc. At the same time, changes of these factors will bring positive or negative impact on relevant demand driving force structure. Therefore, in order to realize the three goals of economic growth, China must appropriately make a few countermeasures to implement the structural adjustment of demand driving force on the basis of considering regional differences of China economic growth and the impact mechanism of these factors on the consumption, investment and export demands and the impact effect of these factors on the demand driving force structure.