The Impact Of The Slowdown Of Economic Growth On Commercial Banks' Nonperforming Loans

With the constant improvement of market economic system,commercial banks have gradually become the most important capital financing institutions in China's social and economic activities.Commercial banks play an irreplaceable role in social life.China's economy has entered a new normal,economic growth continues to slow down,but the analysis of the data in recent years,commercial banks,non-performing loan rate is rising,taking into account the highly leveraged commercial banks,research on economic slowdown on commercial bank non-performing loans The impact on the very meaningful.This paper first analyzes the domestic and foreign literatures,and then analyzes the impact of economic slowdown on the non-performing loans of commercial banks in China from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.From a theoretical point of view,this paper first analyzes the impact of economic slowdown on China's commercial banks,the impact of non-performing loans,and to flow chart way out.Secondly,this paper chooses the relevant quarterly data from 2010 to June 30,2016,and uses the VAR model to quantitatively analyze the impact of economic slowdown on the commercial banks' non-performing loans from the empirical point of view.On the one hand,using Granger causality test On the other hand,by using the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of the VAR model to dynamically analyze the growth rate of the quarterly GDP on the growth rate of the negative impact of the economic slowdown on China's commercial banks to the theory of nonThe Impact of Non-performing Loans Rate of China 's Commercial Banks.The empirical results show that: First,Granger causality test results show that the quarterly GDP growth rate on the impact of non-performing loan ratio,thus confirming the slowdown of the previous economic slowdown on commercial banks the impact of non-performing loans theoretical research;Second,through the impulse analysis,we can conclude that in the long run,quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has a negative correlation with the NPL ratio of China's commercial banks;Third,through the variance decomposition,the NPL ratio of commercial banks in China is The impact of the growth rate of specific how much.Through empirical analysis,we can see that the slowdown of economic growth will bring about the rise and influence degree of non-performing loans of commercial banks in our country,and can understand the specific path of the impact of economic slowdown on commercial banks' non-performing loans through the previous theoretical analysis.Based on the theoretical and empirical results,this paper from the macro external environment and internal management of banks to prevent the two aspects of non-performing loans,and propose appropriate and effective measures and recommendations.At the same time,on the basis of drawing lessons from foreign non-performing loans,combining with the actual situation of China's banking industry,this paper puts forward some measures to resolve the bad loans of our commercial banks.In the environment of slowing economic growth,it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of bad increment and to control the non-performing loans of Chinese commercial banks effectively when dealing with the non-performing loans of commercial banks.