Study On Spatial-temporal Differences And Influence Mechanism Of The "Four Modernizations" Synchronous Development In China

For the past 30 years after opening-up and reform,China's economy has always been in continuous rapid growth,yet the growth speed has slackened a little recently,therefore accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode and boosting the continuous and healthy growth of the economy have become the new focus.The �Four Modernizations� synchronous development strategy put forward in the Report of 18 th Party Congress at the most suitable time has provided a systematic and scientific guidance for solving the problems in China's social economy construction.However,China's development still faces the problems as poor technological innovation,unreasonable industrial structure,unbalanced regional development and uncoordinated urban-rural development;as China is in the critical period of structural reform and social transformation,the �Four Modernizations� synchronous development faces huge pressure,especially the unbalanced and uncoordinated problems of regional development.China has a vast territory and diverse development conditions,the development levels of different regions and the problems thereof are not that clear,thereby having certain influence on the formulation of the regional development strategy.Therefore,by having an objective evaluation of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level and further discussing the spatial-temporal differences and the influence mechanism thereof,we can have a macro understanding of the status quo and problems of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development and achieve a certain theoretical value and practical significance for pushing the social economy development of different regions and the regional integrative development.In regard to China's heterogeneous major economy's inter-range social and economic development level differences and the different phase of urbanization,the �Four Modernizations� synchronous development degrees in different regions are different.The study carries out the measurement of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level mainly at three levels as national,provincial and municipal levels,and extends to the spatial-temporal differences thereof and the influence mechanism.Firstly,through the comparative analysis of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development theory with other countries,China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development theory and actual status are determined;secondly,an index system capable of embodying the �New Four Modernizations� is constructed from the angles as population,land,economy and environment on the basis of the existing study,and China's �Four Modernizations� development level can be measured by determining the weight through the entropy method,so as to further construct a model of synchronous development and measure and analyze the �Four Modernizations� development level;then,the spatial variation characteristics of China's �Four Modernizations� development is preliminarily analyzed from the time-space dimension through the spatial econometric analysis method,the spatial-temporal differentiation and variation characteristics of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level is further described by the means of relative development rate together with the ArcGIS spatial analysis,the spatial correlation of the �Four Modernizations� synchronous development is discussed by adopting the exploratory spatial data analysis method,and the dynamic evolution characteristics and trend thereof are analyzed by adopting the methods of non-parametric kernel density estimation and core curve evolution;furthermore,the influence mechanism is discussed from the two aspects as theory and demonstration,and the demonstration analysis of the influence factors of the �Four Modernizations� synchronous development is carried out by constructing a spatial panel data model;finally,the regional difference components of �Four Modernizations� synchronous development are analyzed by utilizing the method of Theil index second-order nested decomposition,the conception of constructing �Four Modernizations� synchronous cooperation zone is further put forward to solve the realistic question of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development regional differences that we must confront,and the corresponding measures and suggestions are also put forward.The results indicate that:(1)China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development has rich content,and the synchronous development degree is gradually increasing,but still lags behind the developed countries due to abundant problems as urbanization falls behind industrialization,industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization are unsynchronized and uncoordinated,informatization is not sufficiently fused with the other �Three Modernizations�,and regional development is unbalanced.(2)The development levels of China's industrialization,informatization,urbanization and agricultural modernization have all been improving continuously,yet the development speed differences are big,the regional development is unbalanced,generally,the �Four Modernizations� development has the trend of �East-High West-Low�,wherein the informatization levels as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are remarkably different from that of the middle and western provinces and cities;the difference of industrialization development is gradually shortened during the industry transfer and upgrade;the urbanization development speed is uneven with the eastern region faster than that of the western region;and agricultural modernization is gradually increasing with regional differences basically unchanged.By taking the coordination degree into consideration,at present no more than 20% of provinces and cities belong to the high-level coordinated type,and all the remaining about 80% of the provinces and cities have the problems of different degrees,therefore there is still a long way to the full realization of �Four Modernizations� synchronous development.(3)China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development is stable yet progressive,the regional differences are remarkable,and the spatial agglomeration state is obvious.The high-level regions are mainly concentrated at the eastern coastal region and the regions with rich resources and the low-level regions are mainly concentrated at China's southwestern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Shan-Gan-Ning Border Region,with a very remarkable spatial correlation.The regions with the similar development display the spatial distribution pattern of continuous agglomeration,especially in the eastern coastal high-high agglomeration region and the western inland low-low agglomeration region,and these two big agglomeration regions constantly keep �low mobility� during the investigation period and display a certain spatial stability.(4)The �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level developing trends of different regions and different levels in China are different.In regard to the three big regions,the eastern?middle?western successively decreasing distribution pattern of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level is still obvious,yet the development differences of eastern regions are gradually reduced,the development differences of middle regions are reduced,yet not so significantly,and the development differences of western regions have the tendency of further expanding;and from the respect of the different-level focuses of the �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level,generally the pattern of �East-Dense West-Sparse� is displayed,the focus of high-level region gradually moves northward,the focus of low-level region gradually moves southwestward,the south-north different is gradually reduced,and the east-west difference is still very big.(5)China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development difference pattern is gradually formed under the joint action of internal and external factors of the system,wherein economic development,opening to the outside world and science and education level are the key factors of forming the spatial-temporal differences of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development,secondly industrial structure,traffic location and population factor also play important roles in China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development,rural investment level and urban-rural gap also have remarkable influences on China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level;however,at present,investment,finance and banking factors still have no obvious influence on China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level,which also indicates that the boosting functions of the above three on �Four Modernizations� development are yet to be strengthened.(6)The intra-provincial difference is the main reason for causing the regional differences of China's �Four Modernizations� synchronous development level,yet inter-provincial and inter-regional differences also have rather big influences.Based on the status quo and the regional development resource advantages resulting in these differences,31 regions including the four types as �Four Modernizations� synchronous development demonstration region,boosting region,lagging region and assisting region can be established to reasonably distribute the resources,coordinate the regional functions and further improve the regional development efficiency,so as to reduce the regional differences of �Four Modernizations� synchronous development and accelerate the regional integrative development.