Research On The Risk Assessment Of Online Supply Chain Finance Based On The B2B Platform

With the development of economy and information technology, the Internet and traditional industries combined with each other to produce a variety of new business models. Among these models, the rapid development of the traditional supply chain trading patterns and commercial bank lending model and e-commerce technology combined finally produces the online supply chain finance model, which based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. In the model of online supply chain finance,commercial banks work with the third party B2 B e-commerce platform, which is not running by commerce bank, to provide financial services to supply chain enterprises.Based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform for online supply chain finance,supply chain makes full use of the characteristics of the combination of Internet technology to solve the difficult problem of SME financing, improved profitability of SMEs. Meanwhile, online supply chain finance is also effective in reducing the information asymmetry between the commercial banks and finance companies,reducing credit risk. Study online supply chain finance is still a relatively new field,the current academic research has been financing model through the concept of research, online supply chain financial risks involved in the identification of the parties income research and online supply chain finance and other aspects of the study,but did not carry out research on risk assessment and prediction online supply chain finance based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. At the same time, the theory did not form a strong support system for online supply chain finance risk that based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. Since the online supply chain finance is a multi-subject, multi-link, multi-step financing system, the risk indicators are formed from qualitative and quantitative indicators, and then the risk assessment and prediction can be run by a connective shape including qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators. With the continuously increase happening of third party B2 B e-commerce platform online supply chain finance in practical operation volume, for which effective risk assessment and prediction is essential. Online supply chainfinance risks not only affect the credit risk of commercial banks, also affect the favorable operation of the supply chain. Therefore, this article starts from the point which is based on the series relational theory of online supply chain finance risks of third party B2 B e-commerce platform, theoretical summarizing and analyzing. On this basis, a theoretical model framework built up to assessment and prediction of online supply chain finance risks based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform.Subsequently, combining the theory with practice financing model, according the analysis of the analysis of the mechanism of risk occurrence to identify the risks, and thus a system of risk assessment which combined quantitative with qualitative risk indicators of online supply chain finance is built. From the perspective of system theory research method combines the evaluation of online evaluation of supply chain financial risks, not only to design a model which is able to work out static and dynamic evaluation of online supply chain finance risks, but also a prediction model for online supply chain finance risk financing in a period. Then, through the analysis of the model we put forward countermeasures and suggestions online provider of financial risk management. According to the above research ideas, this paper through literature review of existing research, which built a combination of the principal-agent theory, supply chain risk management theory, system theory, financial fragility theory, asymmetric information theory, game theory and self-liquidating theoretical model framework. Meanwhile, the game for B2 B e-commerce platform with the core firm and borrowing firm, the game for B2 B e-commerce platform with the commercial banks can be used to identify the risk, evaluate the financial risk assessment and manage the risk.On the other hand, by way of the theoretical framework of the model which uses the production mechanism to identify the online supply chain financial risks, which builds up an online supply chain finance risk evaluation system that is based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. Then, using the analytic hierarchy process and vague comprehensive evaluation method to do the static risk assessment with the qualitative and quantitative risk indicators. Meanwhile, the results of static risk assessment combine the model of system dynamics to study dynamic evaluation and prediction of the online supply chain financial risks. And then, static risk evaluation combines dynamic risk assessment to form a multi-step model for evaluating and predicting the online supply chain financial risks. After that doing the actual test of the three-step model cases by cases. In the end, working out the suggestions of onlinesupply chain finance risk management under the conclusions of various parts.The conclusions obtained in this research as follows:Firstly, buliding game model of online supply chain finance. One is the game for B2 B e-commerce platform with the core firm, borrowing firm. The other one is game for B2 B e-commerce platform with commercial banks. The result of these two game models can used to obtain the factors, which influence the players on making supervision decision, financing review of decision and financial information sharing decision. Moreover, these results can be also used to extract the factors that may affect the online supply chain financial risks. According to the result of game models, it can be seen that in the research of online supply chain finance the operations and future development capacity of the borrowing firm, the level of development and the emphasis on the credibility of the core firm and the value of the collateral at the time of maturity of financing must be focused. These factors may create the risk.Meanwhile, according to the result of game model of B2 B e-commerce platform with commercial banks, the effort level of review, the distribution of interest on financing,professional level, the mode of cooperation and the statue can create the risk of online supply chain finance. On the other hand, according to the result of game for B2 B e-commerce platform with commercial banks, the degree of B2 B e-commerce platform for sharing information to commercial banks directly affects the online supply chain financial risks. For all, these game models pointed out the direction to identify the risk for online supply chain finance.Secondly, to construct an online supply chain finance risk evaluation system based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. Combining the related theory of online supply chain finance with the risk analysis, the risk of online supply chain finance can be recognized and classified. In the end, the online supply chain finance risk assessment system based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform can be constructed, which the qualitative indicators to be untied in wedlock with quantitative indicators. The system includes 6 first level indicators, 20 level two indexes and 80 level three indexes system. It also summarizes the all risks of online supply chain finance. Meanwhile, the risk of relationship between third party B2 B e-commerce platform and commercial banks is analyzed based on the theory of risk generation mechanism. This kind of risk can be called e-commerce with banking risk.Thirdly, to establish a static evaluation that online supply chain finance risk based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. In period of the static evaluation, byusing the Analytic Hierarchy Process associated with empirical analysis to find out Influence specific gravity of each risk indicators on the online supply chain finance risk. Then, by using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to score the qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators of online supply chain finance risk evaluation system. Thus, the online supply chain finance risk assessment at the time of financing occurred can be obtain.Fourthly, to design a dynamic evaluation that online supply chain finance risk based on third party B2 B e-commerce platform. In the period of dynamic evaluation,a system dynamic model was be established based on online supply chain finance risk assessment system. With associated with the result of AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, during the financing cycle, the change of the evaluation of online supply chain finance risk can be stimulation to predicted by the system dynamic model. The coefficient of system dynamic model's equations can be found in the conclusions of AHP's analysis. And the initial variables and constants of system dynamic model were generated by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. Through the stimulation of the system dynamic model, the risk change in the period of financing cycle can be predicted. At the same time, by varying the initial variables of the system dynamic model, the effect of the beforehand control which during the financing cycle would be studied.Fifthly, using the static and dynamic risk assessment to evaluate the risk of the online supply chain finance case. It can be found that, during financing cycle, the risk value decrease first and then increase. The commercial bank and B2 B e-commerce platform could set the lowest risk value point as the most reasonable financing cycle based on the stimulation of the system dynamic model. By this way,the online supply chain finance risk can be ensured that at lowest level of risk. On the other hand, the main influence on the degree of the online supply chain financial risk changed over time. In the financing cycle, the main risks, which the joined companies should be control, were changed by the time as well. In addition, the effect of the beforehand risk control can be tested by the difference of risk value, that in the same point of the financing cycle.Finally,the system dynamics simulation can enhance the online supply chain finance risk early warning system. By enhancing awareness of risk management,improving risk warning and treatment plans, optimizing risk control system andintroducing financial derivatives to online supply chain finance, the online supply chain finance risk can be effectively managed.